考虑因子突变的客滚船海峡航行安全韧性动力学仿真

Dynamics simulation on safety resilience for Ro-Pas ship navigating in strait considering factor mutations

为有效评价影响因子扰动下客滚船海峡航行的安全韧性,提出了一种基于突变理论和系统动力学的安全韧性评估模型。首先,通过分析客滚船海峡航行安全与应急特征,构建鲁棒性、可恢复性、冗余性、多样性和适应性等航行安全韧性评价指标体系,分析客滚船海峡航行安全事故致因的因果循环关系;然后,引入突变动力学理论,建立客滚船航行安全韧性分析模型,分析客滚船海峡航行安全韧性特征,揭示各因子及不同特性对安全韧性的影响;最后,结合琼州海峡航行的场景数据开展安全韧性动力学仿真试验。结果表明:就客滚船航行而言,鲁棒性、可恢复性和冗余性的增加对韧性提升效果较为显著;环境条件中大风扰动下韧性水平较低。

To effectively improve the safety resilience for Ro-Pas ship navigating in strait under the disturbance of influencing factors,a safety resilience evaluation model based on catastrophe theory and system dynamics is proposed.Based on the resilience of the Ro-Pas ship navigating processes in the strait and emergency characteristics,the resilience evaluation index system of robustness,recoverability,redundancy,diversity,and adaptability is constructed,and the Causal Loop Diagrams of the safety accident of Ro-Pas ship in Strait was established.Based on catastrophe dynamics theory,an analysis model of safety and resilience for Ro-Pas ship navigating in Qiongzhou Strait was established,and the characteristics of safety,namely,robustness,recoverability,redundancy,diversity,and adaptability,and the corresponding influencing factors were defined.By establishing the system dynamics flow diagram,the resilience of Ro-Pas ship navigation in the strait was put forward,and the influencing factors of safety and resilience of Ro-Pas ship navigation in Qiongzhou Strait and the influence of different characteristics were revealed.Combined with the scene data of navigation in Qiongzhou Strait,the simulation results showed that as for the navigation process of Ro-Pas ships in straits,different influencing factors have different effects on safety and resilience.The increase in robustness,redundancy,and adaptability has the most significant effect on improving resilience.Due to the different characteristics of Ro-Pas ships compared with other ships,it is necessary to pay more attention to emergency capacity building in the face of crisis.Increasing the investment level in robustness has the most obvious effect on improving resilience.Under different environmental conditions,compared with the situation of dense traffic in the strait,the resilience level of Ro-Pas ships is lower in windy conditions.The simulation of the resilience for Ro-Pas ship navigating based on system dynamics can provide an operable scheme for ship navigation safety in straits.