甘肃省农业碳排放变化及影响因素分析

Analysis of Agricultural Carbon Emission Change and Influencing Factors in Gansu Province

本研究通过对甘肃省2011-2020年碳排放进行测算,分析了甘肃省农业碳排放变化及趋势,并运用LMDI模型、SBM-Undesirable模型分析甘肃农业碳排放影响因素和农业碳排放效率。结果表明:2011-2020年甘肃省农业碳排放量呈现上升下降再上升的波动趋势;碳排放量增加主要来源是畜牧业养殖引起的碳排放,控制畜牧业粗放型增长,有助于抑制甘肃农业碳排放总量;农业碳排放效率在逐年上升,近10年均值仍低于全国平均水平;经济因素与结构因素是农业碳排放增加的主要影响因素。

Through calculating and analyzing the carbon emissions of Gansu province during 2011-2020,according to the results,the changes and trend of agricultural carbon emissions in Gansu were analyzed,and the LMDI model and SBM-Undesirable model were used to analyze the influential factors of agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural carbon emission efficiency in Gansu.The results showed that the agricultural carbon emissions in Gansu Province showed a fluctuating trend of increasing,decreasing and then increasing during 2011-2020.The main source of carbon emission increase is the carbon emission caused by animal husbandry.Controlling the extensive growth of animal husbandry is helpful to restrain the total agricultural carbon emission in Gansu province.Agricultural carbon emission efficiency is increasing year by year,and the average value in recent 10 years is still lower than the national average.Economic factors and structural factors are the main factors affecting the increase of agricultural carbon emissions.