基于“资产墙”的电网设备技改规模预测研究

Research on the Forecast of Technical Transformation Scale of Power Grid Equipment Based on Asset Wall

电网公司受到前期建设投资不均衡、技术改造不精准等因素影响,设备资产将在未来集中老化。现有的技改投资方案未充分考虑老旧设备更替的需求,形成了“资产墙”风险。通过采用生存概率模型优化“资产墙”预测方法,建立考虑了“资产墙”风险的电网投资策略和技改投资需求模型。通过对“十四五”期间某省级电网公司技改方案测算验证,使用本方法能够准确定位未来技改投资需求高峰期,实现投资风险的精准预测,有效辅助电网技改投资规划。

Affected by factors such as unbalanced investment in early construction and inaccurate technical improvement,the power grid company's equipment assets will be intensively aged in the future.The existing investment plan for technological transformation does not fully consider the need for replacement of old equipment,resulted in the risk of‘asset wall’.In this paper,the survival probability model is used to optimize the prediction method of‘asset wall’and the power grid investment strategy and technological transformation investment demand model considering the risk of asset wall are established.The calculation and verification of a provincial power grid company's technical improvement plan during the"Fourteenth Five-Year Plan"period shown that proposed method can accurately locate the peak period of future technical improvement investment demand,accurately forecast the investment risk,and effective assist the power grid technical improvement investment planning.