稀土产品全球贸易网络格局演化及其影响因素

Evolution of the Global Trade Network Pattern of Rare Earth Products and ItsInfluencing Factors

为了探讨稀土产品贸易网络格局演化影响机制,选取2009—2020年54个主要国家(地区)7种稀土产品的国际贸易数据,运用社会网络分析方法分别从整体和个体层面对比分析了7种主要稀土产品贸易网络格局演化及个体结构特征,并运用指数随机图模型分析和解释了稀土产品贸易网络形成的基础机制。研究发现:(1)稀土矿、稀土氧化物、铈铁以及稀土永磁材料贸易网络的贸易联系趋于紧密,且所有稀土产品贸易网络具有较高的集团性和连通性,呈现出小世界特征,但是该特征趋于弱化;(2)稀土产品出口主要集中在少数稀土大国,稀土金属、铈化合物、稀土氧化物、铈铁和稀土铁合金贸易网络呈现明显的“富人俱乐部”现象;(3)核心国家相对固定,德国和中国均为核心国家,德国影响力优势趋于弱化,中国影响力有所提升;(4)互惠性、多连通性、传递闭合性、聚敛性和扩张性结构效应对7种稀土产品贸易网络演化具有显著的异质性影响。研究结果为我国缓解经贸摩擦、促进稀土国际经济合作提供了政策启示。

Rare earths are listed as crisis minerals,key raw materials or strategic minerals by countries around the world.Taking the trade networks of main rare earth products as the research object,the research gets trade data of 7 kinds of rare earth products from 54 major countries(or regions)during the period of 2009—2020,and the evolution of 7 rare earth products trade networks was compared by social network analysis,and the basis of trade network formation mechanism was explained by using the Exponential Random Graph Model(ERGM)analysis method.The conclusions are as follows:(1)Trade network links of some rare earth products,such as rare earth mineral substances,compounds of rare-earth metals,Ferro-cerium and permanent magnet,are getting tight.While the overall structures of all the networks are still relatively loose.Trade networks of all rare earth products have a high community structure and connectivity,showing a small world property but gradually weakening.(2)In the trade networks of 7 rare earth products,it can be easily found that huge trade volumes are controlled by a few countries,with an obvious center-periphery phenomenon.Rich Club Phenomenon is significant in trade networks of rare earth metals,rare-earth compounds,cerium compounds,Ferro-cerium and Ferro-alloys.(3)Countries’performance in Degree Centrality remain stable.Germany and China are both core countries,but Germany’s advantage is weakening while China strengthening.(4)Influences of mutualism,multiconnectivity,transitive closure,convergence and expansionary structural effects on trade network evolution of 7 rare earth products are significantly heterogeneous.The research results provide policy enlightenment for China to strengthen the strategic research and judgment of the new pattern and new situation of global rare earth product trade and alleviate economic and trade frictions.