考虑外部博弈和内部协同的耦合系统时序随机生产模拟

A Sequential Probabilistic Production Simulation Method for Coupled Systems Considering External Game and Internal Coordination

火电与可再生能源在同一并网点集成为耦合系统能够有效促进可再生能源消纳。传统随机生产模拟方法难以充分考虑外部市场竞争以及内部机组协同对耦合系统运行的影响。为此,提出一种考虑外部博弈和内部协同的耦合系统时序随机生产模拟方法。首先,基于主从博弈,刻画耦合系统与其他发电商及电网之间的电量-电价竞争关系,基于合作博弈,建立了反映耦合系统内火电与可再生能源机组合作竞争关系的内部协同模型;然后,建立考虑外部博弈和内部协同嵌套的耦合系统时序随机生产模拟方法,提出耦合系统的可靠性评估指标以及内部机组经济收益分配方法;最后,采用中国东北某区域电网的实测数据,验证了所提方法的有效性和正确性。仿真结果表明,通过外部博弈和内部协同,耦合系统的经济性和可靠性大幅提升。

The coupled systems consisting of thermal power plants and renewable energy plants are regarded as an important way to promote renewable energy accommodation.However,the existing probabilistic production simulation methods of multi-energy systems cannot adapt to the coupled systems since the relationship between the external game and internal coordination of the coupled systems in the market environment cannot be accurately simulated.This paper proposes a sequential probabilistic production simulation method for the coupled systems considering external game and internal coordination.The impacts of the internal and external cooperative competition mechanism on the operation of the coupled systems are considered in the probabilistic production simulation.The reliability and economic indices of the coupled systems considering the market trading strategies can also be obtained.Based on the master-slave game theory,the electricity-price competition relationship between the coupled system and other power suppliers and power grid companies is firstly modeled.A cooperative game model is established for the coupled systems to simulate the collaborative competition relationship between thermal power plants and renewable energy plants in a coupled system.A sequential probabilistic production simulation method for the coupled systems considering external game and internal coordination is developed.By simulating the operating state of the coupled system hour by hour,the reliability evaluation indices and the economic indices of the coupled systems can be obtained by simulating the hourly operation states of the coupled systems with the consideration of the market transaction strategies.An economic benefit allocation method is then proposed for the internal plants of the coupling systems.The comprehensive contribution of each power plant in a coupled system is quantified and considered.A local power grid in Northeastern China is used to test the proposed method.The simulation results indicate that ignoring the coordinating relationship between the internal interests and external interests of the coupled system will lead to underestimation of the competitiveness of the coupled system in the electricity market.The economic profits of the coupled system and renewable energy accommodation level are significantly increased by considering the external game and internal coordination of the coupled system.The electricity sale is increased by 5.20%,and the electricity sale revenue is increased by 12.01%.The revenues of the internal thermal power plant,wind power plant and photovoltaic power plant are increased by 12.17%,10.12%,4.14%,respectively.The reliability of the coupled system is also improved.The probability of losing contract load is reduced by 31.34%.The expected value of contract power shortage is reduced from 14.97 GW to 11.35 GW,which is decreased by 24.18%.Furthermore,the simulation results under different ratios of renewable energy capacity and thermal power capacity indicates that when the penetration rate of renewable energy exceeds 40%,the thermal power units are frequently adjusted to smooth the power outputs of the coupled system and the operation cost of the thermal power units and the renewable energy curtailment are significantly increased.The following conclusions can be drawn from the simulation analyses in the paper.(1)By considering the external game and internal coordination of the coupled system,the economic profit,the renewable energy accommodation and the reliability level of the coupled system are all greatly improved.(2)Increasing the proportion of renewable energy installed capacity in the coupled system can effectively reduce the unit power generation cost and improve the economic profit and competitiveness in the electricity market,while the reliability level of the coupled system will be decreased.If the proportion of renewable energy in a coupled system is too high,the renewable energy accommodation level will be decreased due to insufficient flexible adjustment capacity of thermal power.Therefore,it is of significant importance to reasonably configure the capacity ratios of thermal power and renewable energy installed capacity in a coupled system.