The dry and hot American Southwest under the present and future climates

由于正在持续的特大干旱,更频繁的洪水,热浪以及导致空气污染的山火,美国西南部目前正在经历气候危机.这些气候危机主要与水文气候过程相关,尤其是气候系统各圈层之间的水汽通量.本研究主要讨论目前一些水文系统的科学基站以及物理驱动因素,比如北美夏季风以及太平洋北美遥相关.本研究指出降水以及气温对于干旱的相对作用的理论和工具.确定内部变率和外部强迫对于美国西南部水文气候系统的相对作用尤为重要.展望未来,需要研究高分辨率模拟系统,加强降水以及温度对于水文气候系统相对作用的理解,外部强迫的作用以及通过科学家以及其他利益相关者之间的合作.

The American Southwest is undergoing alarming climate crises,suffering from the on-going mega drought,frequent flash flooding,heat waves,and wildfires that cause air pollution.The climate crises are mainly associated with hydroclimatic processes and particularly water fluxes across the different components of the climate system.This study serves to discuss where the author stand in terms of scientific understanding of hydroclimatic systems in this region and their physical drivers(e.g.,the North American Summer monsoon and Pacific North American teleconnections).This work highlights the relative contributions of precipitation and temperature to droughts through the lens of theories and modeling tools.More importantly,it is crucial to characterize the relative roles of internal variability and external forcing in shaping the hydroclimatic system in the southwestern United States.Future pathways are also described including high-resolution global modeling system,advancing understanding relative roles of precipitation and temperature in modulating hydroclimate system,further understanding the role of external forcing,as well as the partnership between scientists and other stakeholders.