地方政府债务对居民消费的影响效应与机制研究

Research on the Influence Mechanism and Effect of LocalGovernment Debt on Residents′ Consumption

综合运用中介效应检验法、分位数回归模型和半参数模型,分析我国地方政府债务对居民消费的影响。研究发现:总体来看,地方政府债务规模扩大,通过增加居民房地产财富、提高居民收入和降低实际贷款利率,能够显著提高消费需求;政府债务杠杆率上升提高居民平均消费倾向,对消费倾向的边际影响呈现N型趋势,在0.25和0.9分位数上有较大的促进作用;东部和西部地区地方政府债务规模对消费支出的影响呈现倒U型,说明债务规模过大也可能不利于居民消费需求;东部地区政府杠杆率对平均消费倾向的影响呈现U型,中部和西部地区其影响在波动中具有上升趋势,说明政府债务有利于收入相对较低地区的居民消费增加,但是当杠杆率很高的时候,政府债务也会降低居民消费倾向。政策上应该控制地方政府债务持续扩张趋势,优化债务支出方向,增加政府民生支出。

This paper discusses the impact mechanism of China′s local government debt on Residents′consumption,and comprehensively uses the intermediary effect test method,quantile regression model and semi parametric model.The empirical research shows that:in general,the expansion of the scale of local government debt can significantly improve consumption demand by increasing residents′wealth represented by real estate,increasing residents′income and reducing the real loan interest rate;The increase of government debt leverage ratio improves the average consumption propensity,and the marginal impact shows an n-type change,which has a high promoting effect on the quantiles of 0.25 and 0.9;The influence of local government debt scale on consumption expenditure presents an inverted U-shape in eastern and western area,indicating that the continuous expansion of debt scale may not be conducive to consumer demand;The impact of government leverage ratio on average consumption propensity shows a positive U-shape in the eastern region,and an upward trend in the fluctuation in the central and western regions,indicating that government debt is conducive to the increase of consumption in regions with relatively low income,but when the leverage ratio is very high,it will also reduce consumption propensity.In terms of policy,we should control the trend of continuous expansion of local government debt,optimize the direction of debt expenditure and increase fiscal expenditure on people′s livelihood.