全球价值链结构性影响力对碳排放的影响研究

Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Structural Influence in Global Value Chains on Carbon Emissions

随着世界各经济体深度嵌入全球分工网络,贸易将生产与消费相联结,各经济体能够利用其结构性影响力优势,灵活调节其产业链与供应链的全球布局,从而实现碳排放缩减效应。基于1990—2015年的Eora投入产出数据库,利用EE-MRIO碳排放核算框架,证明经济体的全球价值链结构性影响力优势能显著促进碳减排。从异质性角度来看,传统发达经济体和新兴工业化经济体样本的全球价值链结构性影响力与碳排放的关系最大,这初步印证了全球价值链结构性影响力对碳减排的推动作用具有非均衡性。从机制角度来看,全球价值链结构性影响力与社会发展水平、经济体技术进步交乘项的回归系数均显著为负,表明社会发展水平越高、经济体技术进步越快,会强化全球价值链结构性影响力对碳减排的作用。因此,应积极推动国际气候谈判与全球气候治理体系改革,以实现良好的全球价值链治理与构建人类命运共同体。

As economies become increasingly embedded in the global division of labor,trade serves as a conduit linking production and consumption.Economies can leverage their structural influence to strategically adjust the global configuration of their industrial and supply chains,thereby achieving a reduction in carbon emissions.Utilizing the Eora Input-Output Database(1990-2015)and the EE-MRIO carbon accounting framework,this study demonstrates that structural influence of economies in global value chains significantly promoting carbon reduction.The impact is most pronounced in developed and emerging industrial economies,indicating an asymmetric effect.Higher societal development and technological advancement further amplify this impact.The findings offer empirical evidence for international climate negotiations and global climate governance reform.