基于GM(1,1)模型的唐山市职工医保基金收支预测研究

Study on the Prediction of Income and Expenditure of Employee’s Medical Insurance Fund in Tangshan Based on GM(1,1) Model

收集2015-2022年唐山市职工医保基金收入、支出数据,分析基金的运行情况,并采用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型对唐山市职工医保基金未来5年的收支趋势进行预测。结果显示,2023-2027年唐山市职工医保基金收入、支出均保持增长态势,支出的年均增长率为12.58%,高于收入的年均增长率10.39%,基金年结余与结余率均呈逐年下降趋势,需要警惕收不抵支的风险。因此,今后需加强基金使用常态化监管、严格控制医疗费用、加强基金风险预判和风险点监管,以确保基金的可持续发展。

The income and expenditure data of employee's medical insurance fund in Tangshan from 2015 to 2022 are collected to analyze the operation of the fund.The gray prediction model GM(1,1) is adopted to forecast the revenue and expenditure trend of the medical insurance fund for the next 5 years.The results show that from 2023 to 2027,both the income and expenditure of employees' medical insurance fund in Tangshan remain a growing trend,with the annual average growth rate of expenditure at 12.58%,higher than the growth rate of income at 10.39%.The annual balance and balance rate of the fund show a downward trend year by year,which indicates the need to be vigilant against the risk of insufficient funding.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen the normalization supervision of fund use,strictly control medical expenses,enhance fund risk prediction,and supervise risk points to ensure the sustainable development of the fund.