“两图-双预测”方法及其在地质灾害风险评价中的应用

“Two Maps-double Prediction”Method and Its Application in Geological Disaster Risk

地质灾害风险评价是实施地质灾害精细化管理、加强地质灾害管控的重要依据。综合考虑地质灾害风险评价的系统性、实用性,总结提出“两图-双预测”方法。以陕西省乾县为研究区,利用“两图-双预测”方法评价该地区地质灾害危险性、易损性、风险性。结果表明,乾县地质灾害无高风险区,中风险区主要沿境内3条主要河流及重要交通路线分布。通过验证,该方法评价结果可靠。

The risk assessment of geological disasters is an important basis for the implementation of fine management of geological disasters and the strengthening of geological disaster control.Considering the systematicness and practicability of geological disaster risk assessment,the‘two maps-double prediction’method is proposed.Taking Qianxian County of Shaanxi Province as the research area,the risk,vulnerability and risk of geological disasters in this area are evaluated by using the‘two maps-double prediction’method.The results show that there is no high-risk area of geological disasters in Qianxian County,and the medium-risk areas are mainly distributed along three major rivers and important traffic routes in the territory.Through verification,the evaluation results of this method are reliable.