基于综合立体交通网构建的平陆运河货运需求分析

Freight demand analysis of Pinglu Canal based on construction of comprehensive transport network

平陆运河属于从无到有的内河水运新通道,传统的内河航道项目货运量预测方法难以适用。基于综合立体交通网构建的视角,对平陆运河在区域综合交通体系中的地位进行剖析,综合考虑转移和诱增需求,构建一套针对从无到有的内河水运新通道货运量预测方法体系,对平陆运河货运需求进行分析。预测2035、2050年平陆运河货运量分别为0.955亿、1.200亿t,主要来自北部湾港口群海铁联运、北部湾港海公联运、珠三角港口群—西江航运干线江海联运3条既有通道的运量转移;远期考虑平陆运河经济带及影响区内陆地市的开发诱增运量,预计2050年乐观情景下货运量有望达到1.5亿~1.8亿t。

Pinglu Canal is a new inland waterway channel from scratch,and the traditional inland waterway project freight volume prediction method is difficult to apply.Based on the perspective of building comprehensive transport network,we analyze the position of Pinglu Canal in the regional comprehensive transportation system,construct a method system suitable for forecasting the freight volume of new inland waterway transportation channel considering both diversion and inducement freight demand,and analyze the freight volume of Pinglu Canal.It is predicted that in 2035 and 2050,the freight volume of the Pinglu Canal will be 95.5 million tons and 120 million tons respectively,mainly from the traffic transfer of the three existing channels of the Beibu Gulf Port Group's sea-rail intermodal transportation,Beibu Gulf Port's sea-highway intermodal transportation,and the Pearl River Delta Port Group to Xijiang main river river-ocean combined transportation.In the long term,considering the development of the Pinglu Canal Economic Belt and the land cities within the impacted region,it is expected that under the optimistic scenario,the freight volume will reach 150 million tons to 180 million tons by 2050.