农业在国民经济中的作用下降了吗--基于投入产出视角的分析

Is the Role of Agriculture Undermined in the National Economy:An Input-output Perspective

快速工业化、城镇化进程中,农业在国民经济中的份额不断下降,但这是否就意味着农业的经济地位不再重要?本文基于1997—2017年中国投入产出表分析农业的前后向联系及农业与其他行业的关联特征,利用2012年的区域间投入产出表分析各省份的农业前后向联系和区域间关联特征。研究发现:(1)中国农业的后向联系水平小幅增长、前向联系水平大幅增加,表明农业与其他行业的关联程度稳步提升,农业的作用并未下降。(2)农业与工业、服务业的融合发展水平不断提高,农业的下游链条不断延伸,农业在国民经济中的主体角色正逐步从消费品转型为投入品。(3)农业的前后向联系存在明显的区域差异,农业增加值越大的省份,农业对下游产业的影响往往越大;人均GDP、农民人均纯收入越高的省份,农业生产对其他产业的产品需求往往越大。本研究从经济系统、产业关联的角度为理解农业的角色变化提供了新认知,乡村产业振兴进程中的农业政策设计,应从“大农业”的角度,将农业与其关联产业进行统筹考虑。

Due to drastic industrialization and urbanization,the proportion of agriculture in national economy continues to decline.Does it mean that agriculture has not mattered anymore?This paper analyzes forward and backward linkages of agriculture and correlation features between agriculture and other industries,using the national input-output table from 1997 to 2017.In addition,based on 2012 inter-regional input-output statistics,this paper also illustrates the features of inter-regional correlation.The main findings are as follows:(1)Agriculture's backward linkages slightly increased,and its forward linkages rose considerably,showing that the linkage level between agriculture and other industries gradually increased,and the role of agriculture had not been undermined.(2)Agriculture saw a closer integration with the manufactory industry and service industry,a continuous extension downstream chain,and transformation from the end consumer products on the demand side to the input products on the supply side.(3)There are noticeable regional differences in the forward and backward linkages of agriculture.Provinces with higher agricultural value-added pose more significant impact on downstream industries;Provinces with higher the per capita GDP and per capita net income of farmers,agricultural production require a greater amount of products from other industries.This study could help us better understand the role of agriculture from the perspective of economic system and industrial relevance.Along with rural revitalization,policymakers should consider agriculture and its related industries as a whole.