地方官员变更与企业金融化--基于地级市市委书记和市长的数据

Local Officials'Turnover and Financialization of Enterprises Based on Data of Prefecture-level Cities

地方官员变更导致的政策不确定性会对企业行为产生重要影响,它如何影响企业金融资产配置是本文关注的问题。本文以2007~2021年中国沪深两市A股上市公司为研究样本,考察了地方官员变更对企业金融化的影响。研究发现:地方官员变更会显著抑制企业金融资产配置的“投机”动机,从而抑制企业金融化。这一结论在使用多种方法控制内生性和稳健性问题后依然成立。作用机制检验表明,地方官员变更导致企业面临的外部不确定性和外部融资约束削弱了金融资产配置的“投机”动机,从而减少了企业金融资产投资。进一步分析发现,在民营企业、经济发达地区,地方官员变更的影响更强。本文从宏观环境方面丰富了企业金融化的影响因素研究,有助于明晰政策不确定性引起的经济后果,并为采取合理的保障措施提供了政策启示。

The policy uncertainty caused by local officials'turnover can havea significant impact on corporate behavior,and how does it affect the allocation of corporate financial assets is the focus of this article.This article examines the impact of local officials'turnover on the financialization of enterprises,using companies listed on A-shares in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets of China from 2007 to 2021 as research samples.The research finds that local officials'turnover will significantly inhibit the"speculative"motivation of corporate financial asset allocation,thus inhibiting corporate financialization.This result is still true after using a variety of methods to control endogenous and robustness issues.The mechanism test shows that local officials'turnover leads to external uncertainty and financing constraints faced by enterprises,reducing the motivation for"speculation"in financial asset allocation and thus reducing corporate financial asset investment.Further analysis found that in private enterprises and developed regions,the impact of local officials'turnover is stronger.This article enriches the researches on the influencing factors of corporate financialization from the perspective of macro environment,helps to clarify the economic consequences caused by policy uncertainty,and provides policy inspiration for formulating reasonable safeguard measures.