适应性循环视角下东北资源型城市韧性测度研究及转型路径思考

Adaptive Cycle Perspective on the Resilience Measurement of Northeast Resource-Based Cities and Reflections on Transformation Pathways

我国东北资源型城市在可持续发展转型过程中,部分仍未能摆脱资源枯竭困境,面临更为复杂的城市问题。韧性是深化城市可持续发展的有效途径,但目前,国内外对于韧性的度量尚未形成统一标准,针对资源型城市的韧性定量研究则更为少见。首先,分析19个东北资源型城市的转型制约要素及韧性影响因素,并收集相关统计数据;其次,基于适应性循环理论构建韧性—风险二维测度模型,从生态、社会、经济和基础设施4个方面构建韧性评估体系,并运用主成分分析法量化指标;继而结合中国资源型城市转型压力指数,将标准化后的韧性及风险指数进行聚类分析,划分4种韧性阶段;最后,根据测度结果识别出α、K、r、Ω4种韧性发展模式,并提供相应的转型路径思考。

In the process of sustainable development transformation,some resource-based cities in northeast China still cannot get rid of the plight of resource exhaustion and face more complex urban problems.Resilience is an ef fective way to deepen the sustainable development of cities.However,at present,there is no unified standard for the measurement of resilience at home and abroad,and quantitative research on resilience of resource-based cities is even rare.Firstly,the factors that restrict the transformation and influence the resilience of 19 resource-based cities in Northeast China were analyzed,and relevant statistical data were collected.Secondly,based on the adaptive cycle theory,the resilience and risk twodimensional measurement model was constructed,and the resilience assessment system was constructed from ecological,social,economic and infrastructure aspects,and the principal component analysis method(PCA)was used to quantify the indicators.Then,based on the stress index of China's resource-based cities,the standardized resilience and risk index were clustered and divided into four resilience stages.Finally,four resilience development patterns ofα,K,r andΩwere identified according to the measurement results,and corresponding transformation paths were provided.