2018—2022年内蒙古自治区人间布鲁氏菌病时空聚集性分析

Spatiotemporal clustering analysis of human brucellosis in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,2018-2022

目的探讨人间布鲁氏菌病(布病)空间聚集性,为布病的预防和控制工作提供科学参考依据。方法收集2018—2022年“中国传染病报告信息管理系统”中内蒙古地区布病的病例信息,描述病例发病时间和空间分布特征,通过Arcgis10.8进行空间自相关分析和结果可视化展示,使用SaTScanV9.5软件进行时空扫描分析。结果2018—2022年全区布病累计报告78683例,无死亡病例;发病数存在逐年上升的趋势。各年发病存在1个高峰期即3-8月。主要集中在30~60岁年龄组。2018—2022年各年全局空间自相关系数均有统计学差异,全区布病发病率呈现明显的空间正自相关;各年发病率进行局域空间自相关分析显示,“高-高聚集区”从10个降至6个,存在由内蒙古蒙东地区向蒙西地区转移的现象。时空扫描聚类分析共获得7个聚集区,除第6类聚集区外,其余聚集区聚集时间均持续1年以上。结论2018—2022年内蒙古布病呈现时空聚集性,布病疫情处于严峻态势,加强高危人群的主动干预,建立布病防治综合体,以有效遏制全区布病的传播和蔓延。

We investigated the spatial clustering of human brucellosis,to provide a scientific reference for brucellosis prevention and control.Brucellosis case information in Inner Mongolia was collected from the China Infectious Disease Report Information Management System for the years 2018-2022.The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of brucellosis cases were described,and spatial autocorrelation analysis and visualization were conducted with ArcGIS 10.8.Temporal and spatial scan analysis was conducted in SaTScan V9.5 software.A total of 78683 reported cases of brucellosis with no deaths were identified in the region from 2018 to 2022.The number of cases increased over the years.The peak period of occurrence each year was from March to August.The highest incidence was observed in the 30-60 year age group.The global spatial autocorrelation coefficients for each year from 2018 to 2022 showed significant differences,thus indicating a clear positive spatial autocorrelation of brucellosis incidence across the entire region.Local spatial autocorrelation analysis of the incidence rates for each year revealed a decrease from ten to six“high-high”cluster areas,thus indicating transfer from eastern Inner Mongolia to western Inner Mongolia.Spatiotemporal scan cluster analysis identified seven clusters whose durations all exceeded 1 year,except for the sixth type.From 2018 to 2022,brucellosis in Inner Mongolia exhibited spatial-temporal clustering.The brucellosis epidemic situation is severe.Strengthening proactive intervention measures for high risk populations,and establishing a comprehensive brucellosis prevention and control system are necessary measures to effectively curb the spread and escalation of brucellosis throughout the region.