一种基于双影响因子的软基沉降时序模型

Time Series Model of Soft Ground Settlement Based on Double Influence Factors

为进一步提高软基沉降预测精度,对利用钻探取样、单轴固结实验、渗透—三轴固结联合实验、经验公式建立的固结沉降时序模型以及通过稳健加权总体最小二乘算法拟合得到的区块沉降时序模型进行组合,得到一种以时间为自变量、基于固结沉降和区块沉降双影响因子的软基沉降时序模型。将模型应用于广州市南沙区某软基地面监测点沉降预测中,结果表明该模型较好地反演了软基沉降规律,预测误差指标均小于其他模型,预测准确性和可靠性最高。

In order to improve prediction accuracy of soft ground settlement,we combined the consolidation settlement time series model based on drilling sampling,uniaxial consolidation experiment,seepage-triaxial consolidation experiment and empirical formula and block settlement time series model fitted with robust weighted total least squares algorithm to obtain the time series model of soft ground settlement based on dou-ble influence factors.The model was applied to the settlement prediction of a soft ground monitoring point in Nansha District,Guangzhou City.The result shows that this model has a good inversion of the soft ground settlement law,its prediction errors are less than other models,and has the highest prediction accuracy and reliability.