数字经济发展与农业转移人口永久迁移

Development of Digital Economy and Permanent Migration of Agricultural Migrants

在数字经济蓬勃发展与新型城镇化持续推进的双重背景下,探索数字经济发展对农业转移人口永久迁移意愿的影响具有重要价值。本文基于2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据和284个地级市的匹配数据,将“宽带中国”战略视为一项准自然实验,利用队列双重差分模型研究了数字经济发展对农业转移人口永久迁移的影响。研究发现,数字经济发展显著降低了农业转移人口的永久迁移意愿;数字经济发展通过非对称结构性冲击所带来的就业挤出、收入极化所导致的相对收入水平下降以及劳动权益全面受损而阻碍农业转移人口的永久迁移;数字经济发展对于永久迁移的影响在不同技能水平、流动范围、就业类型的农业转移人口间存在异质性,在不同人口规模、落户门槛及区位的城市间的影响也不尽相同。据此,本文认为政府应加强针对农业转移人口的数字技能培训,促进教育变革跟上数字变革,健全劳动保障并进一步探索大中城市户籍准入制度,从而推进“以人为核心”的新型城镇化,加快农业转移人口市民化。

Under the booming digital economy and the continuous promotion of new urbanization,it is important to explore the impact of digital economic development on the willingness of agricultural migrants to settle permanently in cities.Based on data from the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey and matched prefecture-level statistics from 284 cities,this paper examines how digital economic development affects the settlement of agricultural migrants with a cohort DID model,taking the“Broadband China”strategy as a quasi-natural experiment.The results show that,first,digital economy development significantly reduces migrants’willingness to settle permanently.Second,digital economy development impedes the permanent migration of the migrants through employment crowding-out caused by asymmetric structural shocks,decline in relative income due to income polarization,and overall loss of labor rights and benefits.Third,the impact of digital economy development on permanent migration is heterogeneous across occupations with different skill requirements,and among cities of different sizes and with different travelling distance as well as settlement barriers.Accordingly,this paper argues that governments should provide digital skill training for migrants,promote education reforms adapting to digital transformation,strengthen labor right protection,and explore reforms of urban household registration system in large and mediumsized cities to promote the‘people-centered’new urbanization and accelerate citizenization of agricultural migrant population.