川西北生态示范区季节性干旱灾害风险评估

Risk Assessment of Seasonal Drought Disasters in Northwest Sichuan Ecological Demonstration Area

为对川西北生态示范区季节性干旱灾害的防御体系建设提供科学的参考依据,进一步完善该区季节性旱灾风险评估工作,选取1990-2020年该区内16个气象站点的气温和降水日值数据、地理信息数据、甘孜和阿坝州内30个市县级社会经济数据等,从季节性干旱灾害的致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性、承灾体暴露性和防灾减灾能力4个方面选取了14个适合研究区特点的评估指标,通过计算SPEI值,利用层次分析和加权综合评价法等构建旱灾风险评估模型,基于自然灾害理论,对川西北生态示范区进行旱灾风险评估研究。结果表明:春旱灾害综合风险的高风险区主要位于东部和东北部地区,低风险区主要位于南部和北部部分地区,中部偏东地区为中等及以下风险区,西部为中等风险区;夏伏旱灾害综合风险的次高及以上风险区位于东部和东北部,北部和南部部分地区为低风险区,而西部和中部偏东地区为中等风险区;其中茂县、理县、汶川县、康定县和泸定县均为春旱和夏伏旱灾害的高风险地区,需要重点防范。

In order to provide a scientific reference for the construction of the defense system for seasonal drought disasters in the northwest Sichuan ecological demonstration area,and to further improve the risk assessment of seasonal drought disasters in this region,this paper analyzes the temperature and precipitation daily data of 16 meteorological stations from 1990 to 2020,geographic information data,social and economic data of 30 cities and counties in Ganzi and Aba prefectures.In this analysis,14 evaluation indicators suitable for the characteristics of the study area were selected from four aspects:seasonal drought disasters,the vulnerability of the disaster-pregnant environment,the exposure of disaster-bearing bodies,and disaster prevention and mitigation,and the drought risk assessment model was constructed by calculating the SPEI value,using AHP and weighted comprehensive evaluation method.The results show that the high-risk areas of the integrated risk of spring drought disasters were mainly located in the eastern and northeastern regions,the low-risk areas were mainly located in the southern and northern parts,the east-central region was the medium and lower risk areas,and the west was the medium-risk area.The second-highest and highest-risk areas of the integrated risk of summer drought disasters were located in the east and northeast,parts of the north and south were low-risk areas,and the west and east-central areas were medium-risk areas.Mao county,Li county,Wenchuan county,Kangding county and Luding county were high-risk areas of spring drought and summer drought disasters,which needs to focus on prevention.