基础研究如何推动我国关键核心技术创新?——基于新一代人工智能专利的实证研究

How can Basic Research Promote the Innovation of Key Core Technologies in China?Empirical Research based on the Patents of New Generation Artificial Intelligence

基于我国1950—2020年新一代人工智能技术的专利数据,通过构建计量经济模型,分析了中国创新情境下基础研究影响不同属性类别关键核心技术创新的异质性机理、周期性效应和传导路径。结果表明:总体来看,基础研究对人工智能关键核心技术创新的促进作用显著,但是对不同类型特征和技术属性的人工智能关键核心技术创新的影响存在一定的异质性。例如,对跨媒体分析推理、脑机接口、自然语言处理和智能芯片这类知识密集型的技术创新的促进作用比较显著,而对智适应学习和自主无人系统这类知识复杂型技术的促进作用并未通过实证检验。从技术生命周期来看,基础研究对关键核心技术创新的影响存在明显的阶段性特征,且呈“U型”分布。其中,对萌芽期I、成长期II、萌芽期II这三个阶段进程中的关键核心技术创新促进作用更为显著,而对成长期I、成熟期I和衰退期I的作用并不显著。最后,从构建基础研究、应用基础研究和关键核心技术创新体系等方面提出了相关政策建议。

After many years of development,China has achieved considerable strides in the areas of speech recognition and computer vision,and it has a significant competitive edge.However,the development of disruptive technologies and leapfrog technologies follows an oligopolistic pattern as the pioneering nations have progressively imposed"technology blockade"and exclusive mechanisms in the"choke point"domains.China's core algorithms,as well as key equipment,high-end chips,operating systems,key basic materials and other areas are seriously constrained by others,greatly exacerbating the risk of industrial chain breakage.At the same time,China can easily fall into the trap of"catching up"with the traditional"technology introduction-technology imitation-technology absorption"strategy,which is unable to fundamentally resolve the"neck"problem.China's key core technology advancement and product innovation are constrained by both its own innovation and development model and the competition on the global market.Therefore,the issue of how to implement fundamental technical innovation and successfully overcome the"neck"dilemma has grown significantly and requires urgent resolution.Basic research is a crucial safeguard for achieving the breakthrough of key core technology innovation in the face of the latest round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial change,and it is extremely important to identify the fundamental mechanisms that underlie basic research on key core technology innovation.Based on the patent data of China's new-generation artificial intelligence technologies from 1950 to 2020,the micro-mechanism of basic research's drive on key core technological innovation was explored with empirical research by constructing an econometric model.In order to fully understand China's future driving direction and strategic paths in the field of major scientific theories and basic research of new-generation artificial intelligence,the degree of influence and dynamic conduction mechanism under various technological lifecycles were analyzed in combination with the eight sub-technological fields of the key core technologies.The empirical results show that:Overall,basic research has a significant role in promoting innovations in key core technologies.But there is some heterogeneity in the impact on different types of characteristics and technical attributes.For example,the contribution to knowledge-intensive technological innovations such as cross-media analysis and reasoning,brain computer interface,natural language processing and smart chips has been more significant.However,the facilitation of knowledge-complex technologies such as intelligent adaptive learning and autonomous unmanned systems has not been tested empirically.From the perspective of technology life cycle,the impact of basic research on key core technologies'innovations has obvious stage characteristics,which shows a"U-shaped"distribution.Among them,the role of promoting key core technology innovation in the process of three stages,namely the beginning stage I,the growth stage II and the beginning stage II,is more significant,while the role of the growth stage I,the maturity stage I and the decline stage I is not significant.On the basis of this,pertinent policy recommendations have been put forward in terms of building a system of basic research,applied basic research and key core technology innovation.Firstly,funding for basic research needs to be continuously,systematically and substantially increased.Secondly,application-oriented basic research should be strengthened to accelerate the construction of China's key core technology supply system.Thirdly,the strategic layout of the new round of national scientific and technological innovation fields should be systematically and scientifically formulated,with a focus on the medium-and long-term matching mechanism between the life cycle of key core technologies and basic research.Fourthly,construction of the policy synergy system should be accelerated for the development of the basic research.