21世纪以来江苏省水稻种植面积的变化与启示

THE CHANGES OF RICE PLANTING AREA IN JIANGSU PROVINCE SINCE THE NEW CENTURY AND IT’S ENLIGHTENMENT

[目的]研究21世纪以来江苏省水稻种植面积稳中有增的机制,为新时期稳定粮食播种面积保障国家粮食安全提供科学依据。[方法]文章采用时间序列描述性统计与区域空间比较分析、因素分解相结合的研究方法。[结果](1) 2001—2020年江苏省水稻种植面积经历了“两增两减”的变化,由201.03万hm2波动增长至220.28万hm2,增长9.6%;同期广东、浙江分别减少了53.48万hm2、70.40万hm2,与江苏省水稻种植面积差距不断扩大;(2) 2001—2020年江苏省苏南地区水稻种植面积减少了26.94万hm2,苏中地区水稻种植面积基本稳定,苏北地区水稻种植面积增加了45.11万hm2,苏北地区水稻种植面积增加对全省水稻种植面积增长的贡献率达234.2%,是江苏省水稻种植面积稳定的主要原因;(3)水稻生产竞争力不高和有效灌溉面积减少共同导致了苏南地区水稻种植面积的衰减,有效灌溉面积增长是苏中地区水稻种植面积基本稳定的主要原因,有效灌溉面积增加和水稻生产竞争力提升共同促进了苏北地区水稻种植面积的增加。[结论]对于拥有较多后备稻田或耕地的区域,在一定时期内区域经济发展不一定导致区域内粮食种植面积的下降,但长期稳定粮食种植面积面临挑战。继续稳定江苏省水稻种植面积需要全省协同努力,苏南地区要稳定并适度增加水稻种植面积,苏中地区要积极探索稳定水稻种植面积的有效途径,苏北地区要着力发展稻米产业经济,探索水稻生产与区域经济协调发展的新路径,同时要高度重视江苏省沿海地区滨海盐土水稻生产的发展,为未来全省水稻种植面积增长开辟新空间。

Using the method of time series description and spatial comparison,this research aims to study the law of steady increase in rice planting area in Jiangsu province since the new century,so as to provide a scientific research basis for stabilizing grain planting area in the new era and ensuring national grain security.Through the study the results were showed as follows.(1)From 2001 to 2020,the rice planting area in Jiangsu province experienced a change of"two increases and two decreases",which fluctuated from 2.0103 million hectares to 2.2028 million hectares,an increase of 9.6 percent;During the same period,the rice planting area in Guangdong and Zhejiang province decreased by 0.5348 million hectares and 0.7040 million hectares,respectively,widening the gap with Jiangsu province.(2)From 2001 to 2020,the rice planting area in Southern Jiangsu province decreased by 0.2694 million hectares,while that in Central Jiangsu province basically remained stable,and that in Northern Jiangsu province increased by 0.4511 million hectares.The increase of rice planting area in Northern Jiangsu province contributed 234.2 percent to the increase of rice planting area in Jiangsu province,which was the main reason for the stability of rice planting area in Jiangsu province.(3)Rice production competitiveness was not high and effective irrigation area together led to the attenuation of rice planting area in Southern Jiangsu,effective irrigation area growth was the main reason for the basic stable rice planting area in Central Jiangsu,effective irrigation area and rice production competitiveness jointly promoted the increase of rice planting area in Northern Jiangsu.In summary,for the region with more reserve rice fields or cultivated land,the regional economic development does not necessarily lead to the decline of grain planting area in a certain period,but the long-term stability of grain planting area is faced with challenges.Therefore,in order to continue to stabilize the rice planting area in Jiangsu province,the whole province should make concerted efforts.The Southern Jiangsu province should stabilize and moderately increase the rice planting area,the Central Jiangsu province should actively explore effective ways to stabilize the rice planting area,and the Northern Jiangsu province should focus on developing the rice industry economy and explore a new path for the coordinated development of rice production and regional economy.At the same time,we should attach great importance to the development of rice production in the coastal saline soil of Jiangsu province,so as to open up new space for the growth of rice planting area in the nearly future.