2023年9月全球新型冠状病毒感染疫情风险评估

Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in September 2023

目的评估2023年9月新型冠状病毒感染(COVID-19)疫情全球流行情况及对我国的输入风险。方法根据世界卫生组织公开发布的每日COVID-19疫情数据,结合全球COVID-19入境政策分析,采用流行病学描述方法,通过总体概述、各大洲及重点国家疫情趋势综合评估和周边十四国疫情分析,对全球COVID-19疫情风险进行综合、全面与及时的评估。结果与2023年8月相比,9月全球月新增确诊病例环比下降了54.41%,月新增死亡病例环比增加了8.94%。全球月新增确诊病例前10位国家中,意大利和罗马尼亚为全球重点关注国家;各大洲月新增确诊病例前3位国家中,新加坡为亚洲一般关注国家,摩洛哥为非洲一般关注国家;俄罗斯、印度和蒙古是周边十四国特别关注国家。结论全球每日新增确诊病例9月整体呈下降趋势,对于重点国家和地区要持续加强疫情监测,同相关机构建立沟通机制,互通有无,及时预警。

Objective To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in September 2023 and the risk of importation.Methods According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by World Health Organization,combined with the travel restrictions published by Sherpa,an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview,a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in each continent and key countries,as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and travel requirements in 14 neighboring countries.Results Compared with the previous month,the number of confirmed cases decreased by 54.41%and deaths increased by 8.94%globally in September 2023.Italy and Romania are the countries of global concern.Close attention should be paid to Singapore in Asia and Morocco in Africa.Special concern should be paid to Russia,India,and Mongolia among the 14 land-boarding countries.Conclusion The global daily new confirmed cases showed a downward trend in September.It is necessary to continuously monitor countries with global concern and establish a communication mechanism with relevant agencies to exchange information and provide timely warnings.