东南亚国家联盟放疗资源基本情况调查及对中国科技援外工作启示

General situation of Association of Southeast Asian Nations radiotherapy resources and enlightenment for China's science and technology international assistance work

目的调查了解东南亚国家联盟(简称东盟)放射治疗资源现状,分析其放射治疗需求,为中国放射治疗科技援外工作提出建议。方法使用开源数据创建了10个东盟国家的数据库,包括人口规模、人均国民总收入、肿瘤新发病例以及放射治疗设备(兆伏级单位)的数据。同时估算了需要放射治疗的病例数和放射治疗设备需求。采用描述性统计呈现汇总数据和各国数据。结果2020年东盟国家新发肿瘤病例为109.92万例,需要接受放射治疗的肿瘤患者数估算总计为70.03万例,需要放射治疗设备数量为1406台。目前东盟国家实际放射治疗设备为564台,部分东盟国家现有的放射治疗资源与本国肿瘤患者实际需求均存在一定差距。2040年东盟国家新发肿瘤病例预估为180.03万例,东盟国家需要接受放射治疗的肿瘤患者数预估总计为114.12万例,需要放射治疗设备数量为2287台。到2040年,东盟国家放射治疗设备需求增长率为305%,所有东盟国家都需要配置更多的放射治疗资源以应对肿瘤患者数量和放射治疗需求的增加。结论东南亚国家联盟未来20年对放射治疗存在巨大需求,但不同国家之间差异较大。中国精准放疗科技在东盟国家有巨大空间潜力,根据各国需求有针对性地提出科技援外计划,有助于中国放疗事业持续发挥影响力,促进东盟国家人民健康事业发展。

Objective To investigate and understand current status of radiotherapy resources in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)and analyze the radiotherapy needs of ASEAN countries,aiming to provide suggestions for China's radiotherapy technology international assistance work.Methods We created a database of 10 ASEAN countries using open-source data,including data on population size,per capita gross national income,new cancer cases,and radiotherapy equipment(megavolt units).We also estimated the number of cases requiring radiotherapy and the demand for radiotherapy equipment.Descriptive statistics were used to present aggregate data and national data.Results In 2020,the number of new cancer cases in ASEAN countries was 1.0992 million,and the estimated total number of cancer patients requiring radiotherapy was 700300.The number of radiotherapy equipment required was 1406.At present,the actual number of radiotherapy equipment in ASEAN countries is 564,and there is a certain gap between the existing radiotherapy resources in some ASEAN countries and the actual needs of cancer patients in their own countries.In 2040,the estimated number of new cancer cases in ASEAN countries will be 1.803 million,and the estimated total number of cancer patients who need radiotherapy in ASEAN countries will be 1.1412 million.The number of required radiotherapy equipment will be 2287.By 2040,the growth rate of radiation therapy equipment demand in ASEAN countries will be 305%,and all ASEAN countries need to allocate more radiotherapy resources to cope with the increase in the number of cancer patients and radiotherapy demand.Conclusions ASEAN countries have a huge demand for radiotherapy in the next two decades,while there are significant differences among different countries.China's precision radiotherapy science and technology have huge potential for ASEAN countries.Radiotherapy science and technology international assistance work based on the needs of ASEAN countries will help China's radiotherapy continue to exert influence and promote the health and well-being of people in ASEAN countries.