俄乌冲突背景下的俄罗斯数字经济:制裁冲击与战略调整

Russia's digital economy in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict:Sanctions Impact and Strategic Adjustment

在百年未有之大变局下,数字经济的高速发展和迭代,既是重要的时代背景,也是推动大变局不断演进的驱动力之一。在俄乌冲突的真实场景中,世界各国使出浑身解数抢占数字经济制高点的成果得到了充分检验。我们既感受到了数字战争导致俄罗斯预设的“闪电战”演变成“持久化冲突”的强烈冲击,也见证了西方世界对俄罗斯实施的数字制裁在极限博弈中的作用。透过俄乌冲突可以预见,在下一轮以5G、人工智能、量子计算为代表的数字经济竞争中,占据先机的国家不仅能够依靠数字技术提升综合国力,而且可以凭借数字霸权打压和遏制竞争对手的发展势头。这不仅是俄罗斯在应对数字战争和数字制裁中所吸取的经验教训,也是我们在中美贸易摩擦和数字竞争中的切身体会。数字技术在俄乌冲突中的多种战场应用场景足以说明其战略重要性。美国和西方国家对俄罗斯实施了史无前例的、全方位的数字制裁,打击和限制了俄罗斯数字经济的发展潜力,对既有数字经济产业链、供应链造成了极大冲击。俄罗斯采取了进口替代、生态共建等反制和破解措施,它的经历、教训和经验提示了重视数字经济的发展、夯实新基建、树立数字安全意识、维护数字主权独立的重要性。

In the face of major changes unseen in a century,the rapid development and iteration of the digital economy is not only an important background of the times,but is also one of the driving forces for the continuous evolution of the changes.On the real battlefield of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the results of countries around the world doing their best to seize the commanding heights of the digital economy have been fully tested.We have not only felt the strong impact of digital warfare that caused Russia's preset"blitzkrieg"to evolve into a"protracted conflict",but we have also witnessed the role of digital sanctions imposed by the Western world on Russia in extreme games.Based on the Russia-Ukraine conflict,it can be predicted that in the next round of digital economic competition represented by 5G,artificial intelligence,and quantum computing,countries that take the lead will not only be able to rely on digital technology to enhance their overall national strength,but also use digital hegemony to suppress and contain the development momentum of their competitors.This is not only the lesson learned by Russia in dealing with digital wars and digital sanctions,but is also our personal experience in Sino-U.S.trade frictions and digital competition.The various battlefield application scenarios of digital technology in the Russia-Ukraine conflict are enough to illustrate its strategic importance.The United States and Western countries have imposed unprecedented and all-round digital sanctions on Russia,which has hit and restricted the development potential of Russia's digital economy,and has had a huge impact on the existing digital economy industry chain and supply chain.Russia has adopted such countermeasures as import substitution and ecological co-construction.Its experiences and lessons have reminded us of the importance of paying attention to the development of digital economy,consolidating new infrastructure,establishing digital security awareness,and maintaining digital sovereignty and independence.