俄罗斯的国际定位及其在乌克兰问题上的政策选择

Russia's international positioning and policy choices on Ukraine

国际定位研究是通过分析国家与国际体系/秩序的关系,来解释一国对外政策的目标和动机。俄罗斯在冷战后调整与国际体系的关系,大致经历了主动融入、积极参与、主动塑造和对抗反击几个阶段,对应的俄罗斯国际定位分别为国际体系/秩序的追随者、参与者、塑造者和挑战者。俄罗斯国际定位的变化导致其在乌克兰的政策选择各不相同,大致经历了从自由主义到实用主义,再到现实主义,最终与西方激烈对抗的过程。笔者认为,俄罗斯的国际定位变化与其在乌克兰发动特别军事行动存在着一定的直接关联。具体表现为:俄罗斯在“自我认知”中始终强调的大国定位,与其在2014年乌克兰危机后在国际体系中被边缘化的状况不匹配,导致双方关系日益紧张。俄罗斯不愿意服从美西方在乌克兰的地缘政治安排,追求重建基于历史记忆的“俄罗斯世界”,无法容忍乌克兰的西方化。在“国际认知”方面,俄罗斯对21世纪以来国际格局多极化发展进程十分乐观,怀疑美国和西方维护现有国际秩序的意愿和能力。

Russia's international positioning mainly includes two aspects:self-awareness and international awareness.After the end of the Cold War,Russia began to re-examine its international positioning.Russia's status as a major power has not changed,nor has its pursuit of spheres of influence in the post-Soviet region.Russia's international positioning has a certain degree of continuity,which is embodied in its unremitting pursuit of great power status in terms of self-perception.However,this is also one of the reasons why Russia has never been able to integrate into the international system dominated by the United States after the Cold War.Russia is obsessed with rebuilding the"Russian world"based on historical memory and cannot tolerate the Westernization of Ukraine.The relationship between Russia and the international system has roughly gone through four stages:active integration,active participation,active shaping,and confrontation and opposition.Due to changes in its international positioning Russia's policy towards Ukraine has also experienced changes from liberalism to pragmatism and then to realism.In the end,Russia and the United States and other Western countries had a fierce confrontation over the Ukrainian issue.Russia's understanding of the international pattern after the Cold War has changed,and its international cognition in its international positioning may have deviated to a certain extent.This is specifically reflected in its understanding of the changes in the international structure,Russia has overestimated the development speed of multipolarization and underestimated the ability of the United States and Western countries to maintain the existing international order.