基于第三次全国国土调查数据的土地资源利用现状及预测分析

Current situation and prediction analysis of land resources utilization based on the Third National Land Resources Survey data

为了充分了解土地利用情况,准确、合理地预测未来土地资源的利用走向,制定合理的土地政策,本文基于第三次全国国土调查数据,采用元胞自动机-马尔科夫(CA-Markov)模型对某县级市2025年的土地利用类型进行了预测分析。通过预测2025年土地利用情况,并与2019年相比,耕地、林地和城镇村及工矿用地将分别增加22%、16.2%和0.6%,未利用地将减少32.3%。结果表明,CA-Markov模型不仅能模拟预测复杂空间点,还具有很高的预测精度,预测误差控制在10%以内,Kappa系数可达0.823 4,属于几乎完全一致性。

In order to fully understand the land use situation,accurately and reasonably predict the future use trend of land resources and develop reasonable land policies,this paper uses the CA Markov model to predict and analyze the situation of land use types in a county level city in 2025 based on the data from the Third National Land Resource Survey.According to the predicted land use data in 2025,compared with those in 2019,cultivated land,forest land,urban village,industrial and mining land will increase by 22%,16.2%and 0.6%respectively,and unused land will decrease by 32.3%.The results show that CA Markov model can not only simulate and predict complex spatial points,but also has high prediction accuracy.The prediction error is controlled within 10%,and the Kappa coefficient reaches 0.823,4,which is almost completely consistent.