数字金融提升粮食体系韧性的机理及效应研究

Study on the Mechanism and Effect of Digital Finance Improving the Resilience of Grain System

基于2011—2020年31个省份的面板数据,在理论分析的基础上,运用双向固定效应模型对数字金融如何影响我国粮食体系韧性进行检验。结果表明:数字金融能够显著提升我国粮食体系韧性,经过一系列稳健性检验并消除内生性问题后,该结论依然成立;异质性检验结果显示,数字金融对中、西部地区粮食体系的韧性有着更为显著的提升作用;调节效应检验结果显示,政府支持、金融监管能够显著增强数字金融赋能粮食体系韧性的效应。据此,提出以下政策建议:针对粮食体系韧性变化特点,充分释放数字金融赋能粮食体系韧性的潜力;基于东、中、西部地区异质性特点,因地制宜地扶持数字金融发展;适度、有效监管,科学引导数字金融发展。

Based on 31 provincial panel data from 2011 to 2020,and on the basis of theoretical analysis,this paper uses a two-way fixed effect model to test how digital finance affects the toughness of China’s grain system.The results show that digital finance can significantly improve the resilience of China’s grain system.After a series of robustness tests and elimination of endogenous problems,the conclusion is still valid.The results of heterogeneity test show that digital finance plays a more significant role in improving the resilience of grain system in central and western regions.The results of regulatory effect test indicate that government support and financial supervision can significantly enhance the resilience of digital financial enabling grain system.On the basis of these conclusions,the paper proposes that in view of the changing characteristics of the resilience of the grain system,the government should fully release the potential of digital finance to enable the resilience of the grain system.Based on the heterogeneity of the eastern,central and western regions,the state should support the development of digital finance according to local conditions,appropriately and effectively supervise and scientifically guide the development of digital finance.