面向政府监管的煤与瓦斯突出事故风险评价模型研究

Research on risk assessment model of coal and gas outburstaccident for government supervision

煤与瓦斯突出事故风险是政府重点监管与防范对象,现有煤与瓦斯突出事故风险评价主要面向煤矿企业,缺乏面向政府监管的瓦斯突出事故风险评判模型。基于适时可采集的瓦斯监测数据和煤矿采掘基础数据,采用层次分析法,从动态指标和准静态指标2方面建立了矿井煤与瓦斯突出事故风险评价模型。动态指标方面从监测点瓦斯浓度数理变化特征揭示瓦斯浓度超限风险,静态指标方面从原始煤层突出危险性和采掘因素评价各采掘工作面表征煤与瓦斯突出风险,并基于监察执法结果样本数据,采用Logistic回归模型和层次分析法确定各指标的权重。最后依托事故风险分析平台,将本模型应用到实际监管监察中。应用结果表明,该模型评判结果符合实际情况,可以为精准执法提供支撑。

The risk of coal and gas outburst accidents is a key regulatory and preventive object for the government.The existing risk assessment of coal and gas outburst accidents is mainly aimed at coal mining enterprises,and there is a lack of a risk assessment model for gas outburst accidents for government supervision.Based on the timely collected gas monitoring data and the basic data of coal mining,the risk assessment model of coal and gas outburst accidents in coal mines was established from two aspects of dynamic index and static index by using analytic hierarchy process.The dynamic indexes mainly explained the risk of gas concentration exceeding the limit from the mathematical change characteristics of gas concentration at the monitoring points.The static indexes mainly reflected the risk of coal and gas outburst in each mining face from the original coal seam outburst risk and mining factors.And then on the basis of the supervision and law enforcement data,the weights of each index was determined by using Logistic regression model and analytic hierarchy process.Finally,based on the accident risk analysis platform,this model was applied to the actual supervision.The application results show that the evaluation results of the model are in line with the reality and can provide support for accurate law enforcement.