美国智库的芯片问题研究:演进图景、议题认知与政策影响机制

Research on Chip Issues in American Think Tanks:Evolutionary Picture,Issue Cognition and Policy Influence Mechanism

[目的/意义]本文旨在探究近年美国智库芯片问题研究的演进图景,分析不同美国智库的主要观点、政策倾向以及政策影响机制,为我国应对美国芯片政策对华负面影响提供思路和参考。[方法/过程]本文以13家美国智库对芯片问题的研究成果作为样本,综合运用文献计量法、内容分析法和总结归纳法构建三维分析框架,以厘清美国智库芯片问题研究的演进图景和主要议题认知,解构美国智库影响政府决策的机制。[结果/结论 ]美国智库近3年对芯片问题的研究数量整体呈现上升趋势,主要议题由美国智库对芯片“荒”问题、芯片产业政策和出口管制措施的不同认知构成。美国智库主要通过议程设置、“旋转门”机制以及公开参政的方式,影响政府芯片产业政策的制定与实施。在此基础之上,本文提出若干政策建议,包括:保持对美国智库政策研究的关注,并做好预案以应对可能的对华冲击;与美国不同倾向智库进行选择性互动,减少美国对华的负面认知;深入研判美国智库的政策建议内容,有策略地采取应对措施。

[Purpose/significance]This paper aims to explore the evolving landscape of American think tanks’research on chip issues in recent years,analyze the main viewpoints,policy tendencies and the policies impact mechanism of American think tanks,and provide insights and references for addressing the negative impact of American chip policies on China.[Method/process]In this study,the research results of 13 American think tanks on chip issues are taken as samples,and a three-dimensional analysis framework is constructed based on comprehensive application of bibliometric method,content analysis method and summative induction method,so as to clarify the evolving landscape of American think tanks research on chip issues and the cognition of main issues,and deconstruct the mechanism of American think tanks’influence on government decision-making.[Result/conclusion]It is found that the number of American think tanks’research on chip issues in the past three years has shown an overall upward trend.The main topics are composed of American think tanks’different perceptions of chip“shortage”,chip industry policies and export control measures.American think tanks influence the formulation and implementation of government chip industry policies mainly through agenda setting,revolving door mechanism and public participation in politics.Based on these findings,this paper puts forward several policy recommendations,including keeping an eye on the policy research of American think tanks and making preparations to cope with possible impacts on China,engaging in selective interactions with American think tanks of different tendencies in order to minimize American negative perceptions of China,and conducting in-depth research on the content of American think tanks’policy recommendations and taking countermeasures in a strategic manner.