基于线性混合模型的腮腺炎抗体衰减模型探讨

An Exploration of Decline Model of Mumps Antibody based on Linear Mixed Model

目的探索江苏省五市接种MMR(measles mumps rubella)疫苗儿童腮腺炎抗体衰减的情况。方法以性别、入组年龄、接种剂次和地区作为协变量,利用线性混合效应模型探讨腮腺炎抗体与接种时长间的关系。结果线性混合效应模型分析结果显示,性别、接种剂次与地区的差异有统计学意义,时间固定效应的参数值为-0.088,截距与时间效应的协方差为-0.094。结论模型的ICC为0.652,个体重复测量时间内的变异较小,适合混合效应模型进行分析。腺炎抗体随时间呈现下降的趋势;基线抗体水平越高下降越快,呈现负相关关系。本次研究构建的腮腺炎抗体衰减模型对流行性腮腺炎的预防控制工作有着重要意义。

Objective To explore the decline model of mumps antibody of children vaccinated MMR(Measles,Mumps,Rubella)from five cities of Jiangsu Province.Methods The linear mixed effect model was conducted to explore the relationship between mumps antibody and time effect,using sex,baseline age,number of MMR vaccine and area as covariates.Results Significant difference of sex,baseline age,number of MMR vaccine and area were found in the mixed effect model.The parameter of fixed effect about time was-0.088,and the covariance between intercept and time was-0.094.Conclusion The intraclass correlation coefficient(ICC)of the mixed effect model was 0.652,which indicates that the variation between repeated measurements was small and it is suitable to perform a mixed effect model.The antibody of adenitis decreased with time,there is a negative correlation between mumps antibodies concentration and time,the higher the baseline of mumps antibody level,the faster the decline.The decline model built in this study will be helpful for the prevention and control of mumps.