新疆产业结构优化与碳排放的动态关系研究

Research on Dynamic Relationship between Industrial Structure Optimization and Carbon Emissions in Xinjiang

选取新疆2000-2020年的时间序列数据,从产业结构高级化和产业结构合理化两方面测度产业结构优化水平,构建灰色关联模型分析新疆产业结构与碳排放的关联关系,并通过VAR模型分析新疆产业结构优化与碳排放的动态关系。研究发现,从灰色关联度结果看,产业结构优化与碳排放的关联程度最高。从格兰杰因果检验结果看,产业结构合理化和碳排放强度互为格兰杰因果关系,碳排放强度是产业结构高级化的格兰杰原因。从脉冲响应结果看,产业结构优化对碳排放的影响呈现出阶段性特征,产业结构优化在初期可能会增加碳排放,但从长期看产业结构优化会降低碳排放。从方差分解结果看,产业结构高级化对碳排放的贡献率不高,长期保持在5%左右,产业结构合理化对碳排放的贡献率逐渐上升到42.9%,从长期看产业结构对碳排放的影响主要依赖于产业结构合理化。因此,提出促进产业结构合理化与高级化协同发展,实现产业低碳化转型;调整能源消费结构,提高能源利用效率;设立碳排放权交易市场,倒逼产业结构和能源结构调整等建议,推动新疆经济绿色发展。

This paper selects the time series data of Xinjiang from 2000 to 2020,measures the optimization level of industrial structure from two aspects:the upgrading of industrial structure and the rationalization of industrial structure.It constructs a grey relational model to analyze the correlation between Xinjiang's industrial structure and carbon emissions,and analyzes the dynamic relationship between Xinjiang's industrial structure optimization and carbon emissions through a VAR model.The study found that from the perspective of grey relational degree results,the correlation between industrial structure optimization and carbon emissions is the highest.From the Granger causality test results,industrial structure rationalization and carbon emission intensity are mutually Granger causal,and carbon emission intensity is the Granger cause of industrial structure upgrading.From the impulse response results,the impact of industrial structure optimization on carbon emissions presents a stage characteristic.Industrial structure optimization may increase carbon emissions in the early stage,but in the long run,industrial structure optimization will reduce carbon emissions.From the variance decomposition results,the contribution rate of industrial structure upgrading to carbon emissions is not high,and it remains at around 5%in the long run.The contribution rate of industrial structure rationalization to carbon emissions gradually rises to 42.9%,and the impact of industrial structure on carbon emissions in the long run mainly depends on industrial structure rationalization.Therefore,it is proposed to promote the coordinated development of industrial structure rationalization and upgrading,realize the sustainable development of the industrial structure,and reduce carbon emissions.Low carbon transformation of industries;adjusting the energy consumption structure and improving energy efficiency;establishing a carbon emission trading market to force the adjustment of industrial structure and energy structure and other suggestions to promote the green development of Xinjiang's economy.