城市交通部门温室气体和大气污染物协同减排潜力分析——以唐山市为例

Analysis of synergic reduction of greenhouse gases and air pollutants emission in the urban transportation sector:taking Tangshan City as an example

以唐山市为例开展交通部门温室气体协同大气污染物减排潜力评估,首次在协同减排中考虑汽车空调制冷剂泄漏引起的温室效应,指出淘汰老旧车辆的附带效应,并借用协同发展理论中的协同度指标来测算各项措施减少污染物和温室气体排放的协同减排潜力。结果表明:在实施全部减排措施情况下,全市交通部门温室气体排放将于2030年达峰,大气污染物排放将在“十四五”末期达到峰值;全市当前因汽车制冷剂泄漏产生温室气体排放效应达28.08万t(以CO_(2)计),占全部温室气体排放比例约4.7%,其中50%的排放来自汽车运行过程,且排放量将随汽车保有量上升而提高,需要针对运营、维修和报废过程的空调制冷剂泄漏量制定相应方案;采用协同度评价标准能有效区分不同措施的协同减排力度;淘汰国3及以下车辆时,绝对减排量大、协同度好,尽管在实施期内可能引起制冷剂泄漏量增加,但整体仍能实现协同减排;柴油货车改天然气和提高“公转水”比例,综合减排协同度好,但其在单一大气污染物与温室气体减排方面存在负向协同,需要配合其他减排措施同步推行。

The evaluation of the potential of the synergic reduction of greenhouse gases(GHG)and air pollutants emissions was carried out in the transportation sector,with Tangshan City as a case study,taking into account the GHG emission caused by refrigerant leakage in automobile air conditioning in the synergic emission reduction for the first time.The side effects of phasing out old vehicles were pointed out,and the indicator of synergy degree in the synergic theory was adopted to quantify the synergic reduction capability of the corresponding measures to reduce pollutants and GHG emissions.The results showed that under the implementation of all emission reduction measures,GHG emission from the transportation sector would peak in 2030,and the emission of air pollutants would achieve peak value at the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan.The GHG emission effect of current automobile refrigerant leakage in Tangshan City reached 280800 tons of CO_(2) equivalent,accounting for about 4.7%of the total GHG emission.50%of the leakage came from automobiles,and the leakage would ramp up with the increase in automobile ownership.Therefore,specified measures should be taken to mitigate the leakage of the air conditioning refrigerant in the operation,maintenance,and scrapping processes.The degree of synergic reduction could be effectively distinguished by using synergy evaluation criteria.The absolute emission reduction of phasing out vehicles of national stageⅢand below was large and had good synergy.Although it may cause an increase in refrigerant leakage during the implementation period,it was able to achieve a synergic reduction of GHG and air pollutants overall.Replacing diesel trucks with natural gas ones and improving the"road to water"ratio had a good reduction synergy degree.However,they had a negative synergy in reducing single air pollutant and GHG emissions,which needed to be carried out simultaneously with other emission reduction measures.