信息通信技术(ICT)的收入分配效应分析

An Analysis of ICT's Effect on the Income Distribution

当今世界,信息通信技术(ICT)作为核心技术,继续加深对经济社会的重大影响,其通过改变生产函数而促进经济增长已被大量研究所验证,但对于ICT影响收入分配的研究,仍然缺乏一个统一的分析框架。与通过技术偏向性直接影响ICT产业部门收入分配变化不同,ICT在经济社会层面的广泛应用对整体收入分配影响更大,覆盖范围更广,需要经过产业结构、市场结构、就业结构等一系列中间变量的传导途径,以及一系列基础性条件支撑。因此ICT收入分配效应总体呈现出收入差距从一开始扩大到减缓并趋于缩小的动态变化。通过分类比较,目前ICT发展大致有三种类型:以美国为代表的引领型,主要体现ICT产业高端化发展;以欧盟,特别是德国为代表的整合型,主要体现ICT在生产领域对传统产业数字化改造;以及以中国为代表的应用型,主要体现ICT在服务领域的广泛应用。它们共同具有倒U型库兹涅茨曲线,但不同类型对这条倒U型曲线上的变动幅度及变动状态有重大影响。考虑到ICT正处在向高端化方向发展之中,初步作了ICT未来发展趋势对收入分配影响的推测性分析,并提出了结论的政策含义。

In today's world,information and communication technology(ICT),as a core technology,continues to deepen its significant impact on the economy and society,and its promotion of economic growth through changes in the production function has been verified by a large number of studies,but there is still a lack of a unified analytical framework for research on the impact of ICT on income distribution.Unlike changes in income distribution that directly affect the ICT industry sector through technological bias,the widespread application of ICT at the economic and social level has a greater impact on the overall income distribution and covers a wider range of areas,which needs to pass through a series of transmission pathways of intermediate variables,such as industrial structure,market structure,employment structure and be supported by a series of foundational conditions.Therefore,the ICT income distribution effect in general shows a dynamic change from the beginning of the widening of the income gap to slow down and tend to narrow.Through classification and comparison,there are roughly three types of ICT development at present:the leading type represented by the United States,mainly reflecting the high-end development of the ICT industry;the integration type represented by the European Union,especially Germany,mainly reflecting the digital transformation of traditional industries by ICT in the field of production;and the application type represented by China,mainly reflecting the wide application of ICT in the field of services.They share an inverted U-shaped Kuznets curve,but different types have a significant impact on the magnitude and state of change on this inverted U-shaped curve.Considering that ICT is in the process of moving towards high-end development,a preliminary speculative analysis of the impact of future ICT development trends on income distribution is made,and policy implications of the conclusions are presented.