中国高货币化现象的结构性分析——兼论货币数量论的重构

A Structural Analysis of the Phenomenon of High Monetization in China——On the Reconstruction of the Quantity Theory of Money

近三十年,中国的货币供应量高速增长,货币化率持续上升并超过了诸多欧美发达国家,是典型的高货币化现象。本文将货币分为交易性货币、支付性货币、资产性货币,建立了一个包含货币流量与存量的货币模型,结果表明:市场均衡价格取决于交易性货币的数量;在货币供给政策作用下,价格的变动幅度取决于货币量与货币结构的变化;当考虑到货币结构时,“费雪货币数量方程”可能是不成立的。实证结果显示实体交易与金融交易都提高了货币化率,且前者比后者具有更高的货币需求强度;随着货币化水平的增加,实体经济的作用是减速上升的,而金融交易的作用则是减速下降的,总体上中国仍处于Goldsmith所提出的货币化路径倒“U”型曲线的前半段,但是货币化率增速已经出现下降的趋势。

In the past 30 years,China's money supply has grown rapidly,and the monetization rate has continued to rise and exceeded many developed countries in Europe and the United States,which is a typical phenomenon of high monetization.In this paper,money is divided into transactional money,payment money and asset money,and a monetary model including money flow and stock is established.The results show that the equilibrium price of the market depends on the quantity of transactional money.Under the action of money supply policy,the range of price change depends on the change of money quantity and money structure.When the structure of money is considered,the"Fisher quantity equation of money"may not hold.The empirical results show that both physical transactions and financial transactions increase the monetization rate,and the former has a higher currency demand intensity than the latter.With the increase of level of monetization,the role of the real economy increases while the role of financial transactions decreases.On the whole,China is still in the first half of inverted"U"type curve in the Goldsmith monetization of the proposed path,but the trend of growth of the monetizing rate has declined.