塔利班重新掌权后阿富汗经济重建形势及前景分析

An Analysis of the Situation and Prospects of Afghanistan's Economic Reconstruction After the Return of Taliban to Power

2021年8月15日,阿富汗塔利班组织攻占喀布尔,时隔二十年重新掌权,开始主导阿富汗进行国家重建。受政治安全局势动荡、毒品经济难以根除、过度依赖外国援助等问题影响,阿富汗经济重建形势并不乐观。援助驱动型经济模式被打破后,阿富汗面临着较为严峻的宏观经济形势和民生状况,具体表现为:国内生产总值下降,主要产业复苏受阻;金融部门和银行业受创,物价上涨、通胀严重;就业形势严峻,人才流失严重等。为了摆脱经济困境,阿塔采取了一系列举措,如大力推动产业发展、努力改善政治安全形势、严厉打击毒品经济、增强经济内生活力等。阿富汗经济发展的潜力在于资源禀赋与地缘优势明显,周边合作有望扩大,民生状况有望改善。目前一些措施已初见成效,但在政策出台、切断与“恐”联系、禁毒等问题上存在不足,阿富汗经济短期内难以实现复苏。

On August 15,2021,the Afghan Taliban successfully captured Kabul and returned to power two decades later,and then began to lead the national reconstruction of Afghanistan.However,due to the unstable political and security situation,the difficulty in e-radicating the drug economy and over-dependence on foreign aid,the situation of Afghanistan's economic reconstruction is not optimistic.After the aid-driven economic model was broken,Afghanistan was faced with a relatively severe macroeconomic situation and livelihood condition,which was manifested as follows:the gross domestic product declined and the recovery of major industries was hindered;the fi-nancial and banking sector was hit,with rising prices and serious inflation;the employment situation is grim and the brain drain is serious.To get rid of many economic difficulies,the Taliban have taken a series of initiatives,such as vigorously promoting industrial development,trying to improve the political and security situation,cracking down on the drug economy,developing economic vitality,etc.The potential of Afghanistan's economy lies in its obvious natural resource endowments and geographical advantages.Cooperation with neighboring coun-tries is expected to expand and people's livelihood is expected to improve.At present,some measures have begun to bear fruit,but there are still many shortcomings in policy introduction,cuting ties with"terrorism"and drug control,and Afghanistan's economy will not be a-ble to recover in the short term.