基于SBAS-InSAR与Prophet模型的引黄济青沿线地表形变监测与预测

Monitoring and Prediction of Surface Deformation along the Yellow River to Qingdao Diversion Route Based on SBAS-InSAR and Prophet Model

基于38景Sentinel-1 SAR影像,利用SBAS-InSAR技术获取2019-02-2021-10引黄济青沿线地表形变的分布、量级及时空演化特征等信息;然后,使用形变梯度分析引黄济青沿线地表的稳定性;最后,利用Prophet模型对引黄济青沿线若干特征点的地表形变进行预测。研究表明,SBAS-InSAR能够获取引黄济青沿线及其周边区域大范围、长时间序列的地表形变情况,横纵剖面线形变梯度值比较大的区域与地表形变严重区高度吻合;基于SBAS-InSAR的监测结果,利用Prophet模型能够对形变较小的特征点进行较好的模拟和预测。

Based on 38-view Sentinel-1 SAR images,the paper uses SBAS-InSAR technology to obtain information on the distribution,magnitude and spatial-temporal evolution of surface deformation along the Yellow river to Qingdao diversion route from 2019-02 to 2021-10.Then,we analyze the stability of the surface along the Yellow river to Qingdao diversion route based on deformation gradients,and use the Prophet model to predict the surface deformation at several characteristic points along the route.The study shows that SBAS-InSAR is able to obtain surface deformation in a large scale and long time series along the Yellow river to Qingdao diversion route and its surrounding areas,and the areas with relatively large values of linear deformation gradients in the horizontal and longitudinal profiles are highly consistent with the areas with severe surface deformation.Based on the monitoring results of SBAS-InSAR,the Prophet model is able to make better simulation and prediction for the characteristic points with small deformation.