基于ARDL算法的电力用能模型研究

Research on Power Energy Model Based on ARDL Algorithm

立足电力消费视角,研究建立“电-能分析模型”,挖掘电与能的内在关联,引入宏观经济因素,通过灵活设计ARDL自回归分布滞后模型的使用方法,测算掌握各分行业的能源消费总体情况,助力政府部门评估行业的电气化水平。从各能源消费相关特征量历史变化情况角度出发,预测能源消费未来走势,为政府部门的能源消费宏观分析与战略规划、能源计量水平提升与监察实施等工作提供方法支撑。

Based on the perspective of electricity consumption,this paper studies and establishes an"electric-energy analysis model"to explore the internal correlation between electricity and energy,introduces macroeconomic factors,estimate and grasp the overall situation of energy consumption in various industries by flexibly designing the application method of ARDL model,and helps government departments to evaluate the electrification level of the industry.From the perspective of historical changes of energy consumption related characteristic quantities,this paper predicts the future trend of energy consumption,providing method support for government departments to do a good job in macro analysis and strategic planning of energy consumption,improvement of energy metering level and supervision and implementation.