基于系统动力学的中国海水养殖业绿色发展政策模拟与仿真研究

System Dynamics-based Simulation and Modelling of Green Development Policies in China′s Mariculture Industry

海水养殖业绿色发展涉及经济、资源、环境和科技多个系统的相互作用,是复杂的动态过程。为探究不同政策对该过程的作用效果,文章运用系统动力学方法构建中国海水养殖业绿色发展仿真模型,模拟2021-2035年海水养殖业绿色发展趋势,并在此基础上以经济投入、生态保护、科技创新为导向,设置4种政策仿真模式进行对比分析。结果表明:现状发展模式下,海水养殖绿色发展水平整体有所提高,但资源消耗和环境污染压力增大,经济增长乏力;单一调控政策情景下,经济发展政策难以实现绿色发展,科技创新政策能明显促进海水养殖业绿色发展,生态保护政策对降低能耗和改善环境质量的作用最优;协调发展政策对海水养殖业绿色发展的推动作用明显优于单一调控政策,经济发展和资源利用均处于最高水平,科技水平大幅提升,能源消耗大幅降低,且生态环境质量显著改善。

The green development of the mariculture industry involves the interaction of economic,resource,environmental and scientific systems,and is a complex and dynamic process.To investigate the effect of different policies on this process,this paper used the system dynamics method to construct a simulation model of the green development of China′s mariculture industry,simulating the green development trend of the mariculture industry from 2021 to 2035,and on this basis,four policy simulation models were set up for comparative analysis,with economic input,ecological protection and scientific and technological innovation as the guide.The results showed that under the status quo development model,the overall level of green development of mariculture had improved,but the pressure of resource consumption and environmental pollution had increased,and economic growth was weak.Under a single regulatory policy scenario,economic development policies could hardly achieve green development,science and technology innovation policies could significantly promote the green development of mariculture,and ecological protection policies had the best effect on reducing energy consumption and improving environmental quality.Coordinated development policies promoted the green development of mariculture significantly better than single regulation policies,with economic development and resource utilisation both at the highest level,science and technology significantly improved,energy consumption significantly reduced,and ecological and environmental quality significantly improved.