2020年全球不同国家或地区人群一生患癌风险评估

Global,regional,and national lifetime probabilities of developing cancer in 2020

一生患癌风险是衡量癌症负担的重要指标.但关于不同人群的患癌风险评估的研究目前仍然较少.本研究从GLOBOCAN获得了全球185个国家或地区2020年的癌症数据,从联合国经济和社会事务部人口司获得全因死亡率和人口数据,采用多原发调整法估计人群一生患癌风险.结果显示,全球来看,人群一生患癌风险约为25.10%(95%CI:25.08%~25.11%);男性26.27%(95%CI:26.24%~26.30%),女性23.96%(95%CI:23.93%~23.98%).其中,在人类发展指数(HDI)极高、较高、中等和较低的国家或地区中,一生患癌风险分别为38.48%、25.38%、11.36%和10.34%.男性和女性一生患癌风险最高的分别是前列腺癌症(4.65%)和乳腺癌症(5.90%).余生继续患癌风险随着年龄的增长逐渐降低,但是,70岁未患癌的人群仍然还有12.61%的患癌风险.纵观一生,大约有1/4的人会罹患癌症,男性和女性患癌风险总体上无统计学差异.一生患癌风险的指标可以为癌症预防和卫生系统规划提供重要信息和参考.

The lifetime risk of cancer is a measure of the cumulative risk of cancer over a specific age range and has a clear,intuitive appeal.However,comparative assessments of cancer-specific risk across populations are limited.We used the adjusted for multiple primaries method to estimate the lifetime risk of cancer from the obtained data from GLOBOCAN for 185 countries/regions for the year 2020,alongside all-cause mortality and population data from the United Nations.The estimated global lifetime risk of cancer from birth to death was 25.10%(95%confidence interval(CI):25.08%–25.11%)in 2020;the risk was 26.27%(95%CI:26.24%–26.30%)in men and 23.96%(95%CI:23.93%–23.98%)in women.Significant differences were observed in the risks between countries/regions within world areas and by the human development level.The lifetime risk of cancer was 38.48%,25.38%,11.36%,and 10.34%in countries/regions with very high,high,medium,and low Human Development Index,respectively.Globally,prostate and breast cancers were associated with the greatest lifetime risks among men and women(4.65%and 5.90%,respectively).The lifetime risk of cancer decreased with age,with a remaining risk of 12.61%(95%CI:12.60%–12.63%)from the age of 70 years.The lifetime risk from birth to death translates to approximately one in four persons developing cancer,with men and women having similar risk levels.The identified age-specific variations in cancer risk at the population level can provide crucial information to support targeted cancer prevention and health system planning.