基于商品类别的跨境人民币结算贸易效应实证研究

Empirical Study on the Trade Eff ect of Cross-border RMB Settlement Based on Commodity Categories

2009年人民币跨境结算业务推行以来,我国本着“贸易先行、投资跟进、两腿并行、相互促进”的发展路线,坚持以便利贸易投资、服务实体经济为导向。目前,跨境人民币结算已初具规模,其贸易效应值得探究。首先,本文结合2012年以来的季度数据,分析了跨境人民币结算业务规模及具体业务构成情况。其次,建立计量经济模型,基于2014年7月—2023年6月的季度数据,实证检验跨境人民币结算对不同货物进/出口造成的影响。最后,基于检验结果,为进一步发挥跨境人民币结算的贸易效应,本文从构建助推跨境人民币结算的保障体系和丰富跨境贸易投资中人民币应用场景两方面提出建议,仅供参考。

Since the implementation of the cross-border RMB settlement business in 2009,in line with the development path of“trade first,investment follow-up,mutual development and promotion of the two”,China has adhered to the orientation of facilitating trade and investment and serving the real economy.At present,cross-border RMB settlement has begun to take shape,and its trade effect is worth exploring.Firstly,based on the quarterly data since 2012,this paper analyzes the scale and specific business composition of the cross-border RMB settlement business.Secondly,an econometric model is established to empirically test the impact of cross-border RMB settlement on the import and export of different goods based on the quarterly data from July 2014 to June 2023.Finally,based on the test results,to further exert the trade effect of cross-border RMB settlement,suggestions are put forward for reference from two aspects:building guarantee systems to promote cross-border RMB settlement and enriching the application scenarios of RMB in cross-border trade and investment.