消费升级引领战略性新兴产业全球价值链攀升——理论逻辑与中国经验

Consumption Upgrading Leads the Global Value Chain of Strategic Emerging Industries to Rise:Theoretical Logic and Chinese Experience

在中国经济发展模式逐步由外需转向以内需为主的背景下,本文考察需求侧本土市场消费升级对战略性新兴产业全球价值链攀升的影响,对促进实现国内国外双循环、抢占科技领域高地具有重要意义。本文综合利用2000—2016年中国各省域经济发展数据、WIOD世界投入产出表、战略性新兴产业上市公司数据、中国海关进出口数据和中国专利数据,分别从产业和企业层面系统考察了本土市场消费升级对战略性新兴产业全球价值链攀升的内在机制和作用效果。研究发现,总体上,本土市场消费升级对中国战略性新兴产业全球价值链升级具有显著的促进作用,且这一作用主要通过市场规模效应和技术创新效应实现;在考虑内生性和住房消费挤出效应等问题后,这一结论依然成立。进一步研究发现,在战略性新兴产业中,本土市场消费升级的全球价值链升级效应呈现出明显的行业、区域和所有制类型异质性;国内和国外市场消费升级均是促进战略性新兴产业全球价值链升级的重要市场基础,但国内市场消费升级已然成为培育战略性新兴产业全球价值链升级更为重要的驱动力。本文研究表明,进一步提升内需的消费质量,对于促进形成国内国际双循环新发展格局,实现战略性新兴产业全球价值链升级具有重要意义。

Under the background of China's economic development model gradually changing from external demand to domestic demand,this paper examines the impact of the“demand-side”local market consumption upgrade on the rise of global value chains in strategic emerging industries,which is of great significance in promoting the realization of domestic and foreign double circulation and seizing the high ground in the field of science and technology.This paper comprehensively uses the WIOD world input-output table from 2000 to 2014,as well as the data of China's provincial economic development,the data of Listed Companies in strategic emerging industries,the import and export data of China Customs and China's patent data from 2003 to 2016,to systematically investigate the internal mechanism and effect of local market consumption upgrading on the rise of the global value chain of strategic emerging industries from the industrial and enterprise levels.The study found that:The upgrading of consumption in the local market has a significant role in promoting the upgrading of the global value chain of China's strategic emerging industries,and this role is mainly achieved by enhancing the scale of the local market and the ability of independent innovation of enterprises;After considering the crowding-out effect of house prices,the establishment of subsidiaries and endogeneity of listed companies,this conclusion still holds.Further research shows that in strategic emerging industries,the global value chain upgrading effect of consumption upgrading in the local market shows obvious heterogeneity of industry,region and enterprise ownership types.Moreover,consumption upgrading in foreign markets still plays an important role in promoting the global value chain upgrading of strategic emerging industries,but consumption upgrading in domestic markets has become a more important driving force for cultivating the global value chain upgrading of strategic emerging industries.The research in this paper shows that further improving the consumption quality of domestic demand is of great significance to promote the formation of a new development pattern of domestic and international double circulation and realize the upgrading of global value chains in strategic emerging industries.