俄乌冲突下欧盟战略自主的推进困境:双层欧盟视角的分析

The Dilemma of EU Strategic Autonomy amid the Russia-Ukraine Conflict:From Two Level's EU Perspective

欧盟战略自主已经成为欧盟长期追求的战略目标并已在防务、经济与技术等多领域取得了一系列的进展。俄乌冲突的爆发使欧盟对战略自主的追求更加困难。从欧盟层面来看,俄乌冲突冲击了地缘政治格局、国际经贸体系以及欧洲安全形势,对欧盟战略自主产生了深远影响。俄乌冲突造成的大国战略博弈复杂化使欧盟在保障自身安全的同时,还要从长远角度考虑如何在中美战略竞争大背景下维护自身利益。俄乌冲突造成欧洲地缘安全形势剧烈动荡,美国借机强化了在欧洲安全中的主导地位,牵制了欧盟战略自主。欧洲经济也遭受多重冲击,衰退风险加大。这一系列连锁反应加大了欧盟本身能力与战略自主目标之间的鸿沟。从成员国层面来看,法德之间以及新老欧洲国家之间的分歧也影响了欧盟战略自主的实现与发展。不过,俄乌冲突仍然加强了欧盟追求战略自主的决心,当前欧盟战略自主的政策重点聚焦于欧盟的防务安全与经济安全,主要关注欧盟在维护自身防务安全上应采取何种路径以及如何降低俄乌冲突对欧盟产业链和供应链的影响。欧盟继续将战略自主作为未来的战略方向,以此为基础制定内外政策,展开对外行动。

The EU's strategic autonomy has been a long-sought strategic goal with defense,economy,and technology.The Russia-Ukraine conflict has impacted the geopolitical landscape at the EU level,the international economic and trade system and security situation.On the one hand,the complexity of strategic game among the major powers caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict has made the EU consider how to safeguard its own interests between China and the US.The Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused dramatic turmoil in the geo-security situation in Europe,and the US has taken the opportunity to strengthen its dominant position in European security and restrain the EU's strategic autonomy.Finally,the European economy has suffered multiple shocks and the risk of recession has increased.This series of chain reactions has widened the gap between EU's own capabilities and the goal of strategic autonomy;at the level of the member states,differences old and new EU members have also affected the realization and development.Nevertheless,the Russia-Ukraine conflict has strengthened the EU's determination to pursue strategic autonomy.EU's strategic autonomy currently focuses on defense and economic security.EU should reduce the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on EU's industrial and supply chains.The EU continues to set strategic autonomy as a future strategic direction on which to base its internal and external policies and actions.