中国市域经济韧性结构分解与演变及其创新驱动机制

Structure Decomposition,Evolution and Innovation Driving Mechanism of Urban Economic Resilience in China

文章采用敏感性指数法测算市域经济韧性,利用Shift-share法对经济韧性进行结构分解,并运用核密度估计、空间马尔科夫链、冷热点分析和空间计量模型对中国市域经济韧性的动态演变、结构分解及创新驱动机制进行分析。主要结论如下:①市域经济韧性空间差异呈现先缩小后扩大再缩小的演变趋势。类型转移具有“路径依赖”效应,在考虑空间滞后时,不同类型市域演化路径分异明显。热点区和次热点区呈现分散扩张的趋势,冷点区和次冷点区呈现集聚收缩的趋势。②整体经济韧性主要由竞争力韧性主导,但是竞争力韧性在整体经济韧性中的结构主导作用逐渐减弱。③创新链效率对经济韧性具有驱动作用,并存在空间溢出效应,但是这种空间溢出效应存在时间异质性。进一步分析发现,经济韧性的创新驱动机制主要是通过作用于竞争力韧性完成的。

This paper uses the sensitivity index method to measure the urban economic resilience,and the shift-share method to decompose the structure of economic resilience.Based on the kernel density estimation,spatial Markov chain,cold-hot spot analysis and spatial econometric model,it analyzes the dynamic evolution,structural decomposition and innovation driving mechanism of urban economic resilience in China.The main conclusions are as follows:1)The spatial differences of urban economic resilience show an evolutionary trend of narrowing first,then expanding and then narrowing.The transition type of urban economic resilience has the effect of"path dependence",the evolution path of different types of cities is obviously different under the consideration of the spatial lag.It shows the trend of dispersion and expansion in the hot-spot areas and sub-hot-spot areas,shows the trend of agglomeration and contraction in the coldspot areas and sub-cold-spot areas.2)The overall economic resilience is mainly dominated by competitiveness resilience,but the leading role of competitiveness resilience in the overall economic resilience is gradually weakened.3)The efficiency of innovation chain has a driving effect on the economic resilience,and there is significant spatial spillover,but this spatial spillover effect has temporal heterogeneity.Further analysis shows that the innovation-driven mechanism of economic resilience is mainly completed by acting on competitiveness resilience.