中国城市住房限购强度的时空扩散特征及其形成机制

The Spatio-Temporal Diffusion of the Intensity of Housing-Purchase Restriction Policies and Their Formation Mechanism in Chinese Cities

文章基于政策扩散理论构建了住房限购强度的分析框架,以第二轮住房限购的49个地级及以上城市为研究对象,定量测度限购强度并分析其时空扩散特征,综合运用时空地理加权回归模型探寻城市限购强度的内在机制。结果表明:①通过限购强度表征的限购政策在扩散时具有灵活性和不规律性,在空间上呈现高强度城市以跳跃式扩散、城市群内以传染性扩散为主的模式,全国层面的限购强度梯度格局逐渐转向以城市群为单元的梯度格局。②城市限购政策受到控房价、稳增长、保投资和应对中央监管、对标同级城市等多种诉求的影响,其效应具有明显的时空异质性。时间上存在控房价、保投资、稳增长等诉求的阶段性变化,但是对标同级城市的诉求是不变的;空间上各项影响因素的效应具有东中西差异和城市群类似性。③限购强度的时空扩散特征是各项影响因素综合作用的结果,限购强度逐渐呈现出城市群内的梯度格局。可见,城市间对标是影响其政策决策的重要因素,未来应立足城市个体全面刻画中央集权下“横向看齐”的互动关系,从而更深入地理解我国城市公共政策扩散特征和内在机制。

The study constructed an analysis framework for housing purchase restriction intensities based on the policy diffusion theory,takes 49 prefecture-level cities involved in the second round of housing purchase restriction as the research objects,quantitatively measures the housing purchase restriction intensity,and analyzes their spatio-temporal diffusion pattern.It uses the GWR model to explore the internal mechanisms of different cities'housing purchase restriction intensities.The results show that:1)The intensity of housing purchase restriction policies shows the flexible and irregular diffusion characteristics,it shows the jumping diffusion mode in cities with high-intensity diffusion,and the infectious diffusion mode in urban agglomerations.The gradient pattern of housing purchase restriction intensity shifts to the gradient pattern which takes the urban agglomerations as the unit at the national level.2)Cities'housing purchase restriction policies are determined comprehensively by multidimensional demands like controlling house prices,stabilizing growth of economy,preserving investment,responding to central regulation,and benchmarking with peer cities,the effects of which are spatio-temporal heterogeneous.In the temporal dimension,although cities'demands on house prices,preserving investment and stabilizing growth of economy may change gradually,the demands for benchmarking cities remain the same.In the spatial dimension,effects of different factors show differences between the eastern,central,and western regions while similarity exists within urban agglomerations.3)The spatial-temporal characteristics of housing purchase restriction policy diffusion are the result of the combination of various influencing factors,the housing purchase restriction intensity gradually shows a gradient pattern within urban agglomerations.Therefore,the inter-city benchmarking should be an important factor influencing cities'policy.In the future,the horizontal interaction under centralized power should be comprehensively portrayed,so as to more deeply understand the characteristics and internal mechanisms of our country's city public policy diffusion.