娜姑光伏电站的太阳能资源评估及发电量预测

ASSESSMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY RESOURCES AND PREDICTION OF POWER GENERATION CAPACITY IN NAGU PV POWER STATION

云南省是中国太阳能资源最丰富的地区之一,光伏发电已成为该省实现能源转型的中坚力量和减少碳排放的重要举措。基于Meteomorm和SolarGIS数据库,对在云南省曲靖市会泽县拟建的娜姑光伏电站所在区域的太阳能资源时空分布特征进行了分析;并通过计算能够反映太阳能资源丰富程度、稳定度和太阳直接辐射状况的量化指标,评估了该光伏电站建设地的气候适宜性;然后利用光伏发电系统设计软件,结合电站所在地的实际地形,对该电站光伏阵列的布置方式进行了优化,并预测了电站的发电量。分析结果表明:1)基于Meteomorm和SolarGIS数据库分别计算得到的月均水平面太阳辐射量及月均水平面太阳散射辐射量的变化趋势和数值基本接近;2)根据SolarGIS数据库计算得到的娜姑光伏电站建设区域的年总水平面太阳辐射量、月均法向太阳直接辐射量和年总水平面太阳散射辐射量分别为1655.9、1361.8和755.0 kWh/m^(2);3)娜姑光伏电站装机容量为151.2 MW时,预计其25年的总发电量为5499833.0 MWh,年均发电量为219993.3 MWh,年均等效利用小时数为1454.9 h。该研究可为娜姑光伏电站的建设提供科学依据。

Yunnan Province is one of the regions with the richest solar energy resources in China,and PV power generation has become the backbone of the province's energy transformation and an important measure to reduce carbon emissions.This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of solar energy resources in the area where the proposed Nagu PV power station is located in Huize County,Qujing City,Yunnan Province,based on Meteomorm and SolarGIS databases.And the climate suitability of the PV power station construction site is evaluated by calculating quantitative indicators that can reflect the richness,stability,and direct solar radiation status of solar energy resources.Then,using PV power generation system design software,the layout of the PV array is optimized based on the actual terrain of the PV power station location,and the power generation capacity of the PV power station is predicted.The analysis results show that:1)The variation trends and values of the monthly average horizontal solar radiation and scattered solar radiation calculated based on Meteomorm and SolarGIS databases are basically similar;2)According to the SolarGIS database,the annual total horizontal solar radiation,annual total normal direct solar radiation,and annual total horizontal scattered solar radiation in the construction area of the Nagu PV power station are 1655.9,1361.8,and 755.0 kWh/m^(2),respectively;3)When the installed capacity of the Nagu PV power station is 151.2 MW,it is expected that its total power generation capacity in 25 years will be 5499833.0 MWh,with an average annual power generation capacity of 219993.3 MWh and an average equivalent utilization hours of 1454.9 hours.This study can provide scientific basis for the construction of Nagu PV power station.