基于完全信息静态博弈的城市地下空间开发风险分担

Risk Sharing of Urban Underground Space Development Based on Complete Information Static Game

城市地下空间开发建设规模大、建设时间长,需要投入大量人力、财力与时间,具有许多难以预计的风险因素。本文以城市地下空间开发风险为研究对象,运用文献研究法充分识别各阶段共43个风险因素后,对风险损失进行分析,并建立完全信息静态博弈模型并对各参与方具体的风险分担比例进行博弈。最后结合武汉市光谷中心地下开发项目进行实例验证,经专家访谈打分得到14个核心风险,其中包括1个双方共担风险,13个三方共担风险,再基于各方的风险偏好根据博弈模型求解出各方对14个风险具体的分担比例,从而给城市地下空间开发项目的风险分担提出建议。本文研究结果与项目实际情况相符,能够给其他城市地下空间开发的风险分担提供决策参考。

The development and construction of urban underground space is large-scale and takes a long time.It often requires a lot of manpower,financial resources and time,and there are many unpredictable risk factors.This paper takes the risk of urban underground space development as the research object,by using the literature research method to fully identify a total of 43 risk factors at each stage,analyzes the risk loss and establishes a complete information static game model to analyze the specific risk sharing ratio of each participant.Finally,combined with the underground development project of Wuhan Optics Valley Center for example verification,14 core risks were scored through expert interviews,including 1 risk shared by both parties and 13 risks shared by three parties,and then based on the risk preferences of each party according to the game model solve the specific share ratio of each party to these 14 risks,so as to make suggestions for the risk share of urban underground space development projects.The research results of this paper are quite consistent with the actual situation of the project,and can provide a reference for decision-making of the risk sharing of underground space development in other cities.