ChatGPT/生成式人工智能与就业替代:基于高校大学生能力供求的视角

ChatGPT/Generative Artificial Intelligence and Employment Displacement:A Perspective Based on the Skill Supply and Demand of College Students

本文基于2019年高校毕业生就业抽样调查数据,对AI时代高校能力供求现状和特征以及高等教育对难以替代的核心能力的作用机制进行实证考察。研究发现:(1)我国高等教育能力供给存在趋同现象,主要贡献容易替代的知识技能类能力,创新创造等核心能力增值缓慢,且出现“倒挂”现象,“双一流”高校反而逊色于高职高专院校,普通本科院校能力发展最严峻;(2)大学生依据过往竞争法预判替代风险,但AI对就业存在“极化效应”,预估“双一流”高校毕业生的职业更容易被AI替代,但其忧患意识更弱从而面临更大的替代危机;(3)高校依然是型塑核心能力的主阵地,专业课程和教师教学对问题解决和社交协作能力贡献最大,跨学科课程对创新创造能力的增值效应最大。建议高校要锚准人才培养定位,重构教育课程内容,确保学生获得适应新技术要求的高阶能力,实现从“被动”向“积极主动”的劳动力市场政策转变。

Using data from the 2019 sample survey data of college graduates'employment,this paper conducts an empirical investigation exploring the current status,characteristics,and mechanisms of skill supply and demand in the AI era from the perspective of higher education.The study reveals the following findings:(1)The supply of higher education skills in China exhibits a convergence phenomenon,with a predominant contribution of easily substitutable knowledge and technical skills.The value enhancement of core abilities such as innovation and creativity is slow,leading to a phenomenon of'inverted pyramid',where'Double First-Class'universities are surpassed by higher vocational and junior colleges,and general undergraduate institutions face the most severe challenges in skill development.(2)College students anticipate substitution risks based on historical competitive methods,yet AI's impact on employment shows a'polarization effect'.Graduates from'Double First-Class'universities are more likely to be replaced by AI,but they possess a weaker sense of concern,resulting in a greater substitution crisis.(3)Higher education institutions remain the primary breeding ground for shaping core abilities.Discipline-specific courses and instructional quality contribute most to problem-solving and social collaborative abilities,while interdisciplinary courses exhibit the greatest value enhancement in fostering innovation and creativity.The study suggests that universities should accurately define their talent cultivation orientation,reconstruct educational curricula,ensure students acquire high-level capabilities suited for emerging technological demands,and effect a transition in labor market policies from passive to proactively proactive.