RCEP关税削减与全要素生产率——基于结构模型的量化分析

RCEP Tariff Reduction and Total Factor Productivity:A Structural Quantitative Assessment

文章利用结构模型定量分析了RCEP关税削减对中国30个省区、14个可贸易行业和世界35个主要经济体全要素生产率的影响。结果发现,基准情形下,RCEP关税削减提升了中国29个省区和11个可贸易行业、所有成员国以及部分非成员国的全要素生产率。从省区来看,RCEP关税削减对全要素生产率的提升作用在东部和广西等地区中更为突出;分行业而言,全要素生产率增幅较大的行业为高新技术行业、纺织品和服装行业以及农林牧渔行业。反事实分析表明:在RCEP关税削减的同时,无论是降低中国省际贸易壁垒,还是降低RCEP成员国间的非关税贸易壁垒,中国各省区和各可贸易行业的全要素生产率均明显上升;相较于后者,降低省际贸易壁垒对全要素生产率的促进作用更加明显,这表明国内大循环在“双循环”中的重要性。此外,同时降低省际贸易壁垒和RCEP非关税壁垒,对全要素生产率的促进作用更是高于单独降低两种壁垒,这证明了推动“双循环”的必要性。

The paper employs a structural model to quantitatively assess the impact of RCEP tariff reduction on total factor productivity(TFP)in 30 provinces and 14 tradable industries in China,as well as 35 major economies in the world.The results reveal that tariff reduction increases the TFP of 29 provinces and 11 tradable industries in China,and increases the TFP of all member countries and certain non-member countries.The effect of tariff reduction under RCEP on the enhancement of total factor productivity is more prominent in the eastern region and Guangxi province or in high-tech industries,textiles and clothing,as well as agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,and fishery sectors.Counterfactual analysis reveals that,with the reduction of tariffs under the RCEP,whether it is lowering inter-provincial trade barriers in China or reducing non-tariff trade barriers among RCEP member countries,there is a significant increase in total factor productivity across various provinces and tradable industries in China.The reduction of inter-provincial trade barriers in China has a more pronounced effect on promoting total factor productivity compared to the reduction of non-tariff trade barriers among RCEP member countries,indicating the importance of domestic circulation in the"dual circulation"strategy.Furthermore,the simultaneous reduction of inter-provincial trade barriers and RCEP non-tariff barriers has a greater impact on promoting total factor productivity than the reduction of either barrier alone,highlighting the necessity of advancing the"dual circulation"strategy.