退而不休的代际影响:老年人劳动供给与子女生育

The Intergenerational Effect of Delayed Retirement:Elderly Labor Supply and Children’s Fertility

延迟退休和低生育率已成为我国社会各界关注的热点话题。由于隔代抚养现象在我国普遍存在,老年人退而不休的行为可能会影响年轻一代的生育决策。本文基于2015和2018年中国健康与养老追踪调查的数据(CHARLS),采用两阶段最小二乘法(IV-2SLS),探究退而不休的老年人劳动供给对子女生育的影响。研究结果表明:(1)退而不休的老年人劳动供给的增加将显著降低子女的生育率,对于有退而不休意愿和客观上退而不休的群体而言,老年人延迟退休1年,将导致子女生育率较目前平均生育水平分别降低17.4%和31.1%。(2)老年人劳动供给的增加将减少老年人照料孙辈的时间,从而抑制子女生育。(3)女性、农村、东西部地区、与子女同住的群体的老年劳动供给对生育率的抑制作用更强。因此,政府在实施延迟退休政策的同时需出台相应配套政策以缓解其对生育率的负面影响。

Postponing retirement age and low fertility rate have become one of the most popular topics of public policy and academic research in China.Given the prevalent phenomenon of intergenerational caregiving,the decision of old individuals to"retire but not withdraw"may affect the reproductive decisions of the younger generation.Based on the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)in 2015 and 2018,this study applies the two-stage least squares(IV-2SLS)method to analyze the impact of delayed retirement on fertility.The results show that:(1)An increase in the labor supply of old individuals who delay retirement would significantly reduce the fertility rates of their children.For the sample with both the intention and the objective of"retire but not withdraw",a one-year delay in retirement for elderly individuals results in a reduction of 17.4%and 31.1%to the average fertility level,respectively.(2)The increase in elderly labor supply reduces the time they allocate to caregiving for their grandchildren,thereby inhibiting the fertility of their children.(3)The inhibitory effect of elderly labor supply on fertility is more pronounced for women,rural residents,individuals living in the eastern and western regions of China,and those living with their children.Therefore,when implementing the policy of delaying retirement,the policy-makers should concurrently introduce complementary policies to mitigate its adverse effects on fertility.