制裁、脱钩与极限施压:美国对华冷战边缘政策探析

Sanction,Decoupling,and Extreme Pressure:The United States'Brinkmanship of the Cold War Towards China

自特朗普政府发动对华贸易战以来,学界关于美国对华政策的讨论可以归纳为两种主张:新冷战政策和非冷战政策,然而其解释不能完全反映当前美国对华政策的本质。其实,美国从特朗普政府至今对中国实施的是冷战边缘政策。该政策经历了四个不同的发展阶段,单边制裁、高科技脱钩和极限施压是冷战边缘政策的三条主线,高科技脱钩是其政策核心,目的是通过全球谋势、地区围堵及单边制裁防范和遏制中国的发展。它具有政策边界、摇摆性和不确定性、极限施压等特征,与国际体系因素、中美价值观差异、政府官员的个人特质及第三方立场密切相关。总的来看,该政策对中国的和平发展和国际环境局势造成很大冲击,我们对此既需有利、有理、有节的适当反应以避免中美冷战生成,也要做好中美滑向冷战的应对准备。

Since the Trump administration launched the trade war with China,the academic discussion on the U.S.policy towards China can be summarized into two propositions:the new cold war policy and the non-cold war policy.However,those interpretations cannot fully reflect the essence of the current U.S.policy towards China.In fact,the United States has implemented the brinkmanship of the cold war towards China since the Trump administration.The policy has gone through four dfferent stages of development.Unilateral sanctions,high-tech decoupling,and extreme pressure are the three main lines of the brink of cold war policy.High-tech decoupling is the core of the policy,with the purpose of preventing and containing China's development.It has the characteristics of policy boundary,swing and uncertainty,extreme pressure,and is closely related to the power transition in the international system,differences in values,the personal characteristics of government oficials,the third-party positions.On the wholethe policy has had a great impact on China's peaceful development and the international environment.We not only need a rational,positive,and moderated response,but also should prepare for the potential cold war from the United States.