自主性与安全的权衡:日美围绕冲绳问题交涉的演进

The Trade-Off Between Autonomy and Security:Evolution of Japan-U.S.Bargaining on the Okinawa Issue

自日美同盟成立以来,双方围绕冲绳问题的交涉从未停止。作为强国,美国面对日本提出的收回施政权和调整军事基地安排的自主性要求为什么有时会作出妥协?基于不对称同盟中强国与弱国间“自主性—安全”交易的理论分析表明,强国在特定时期对弱国的战略依赖状况及弱国所表现出的战略可靠性是影响弱国自主性斗争结果的核心变量。强国对弱国整体战略配合的需求(相较改变基地安排的成本)对其更重要,弱国提供战略配合的可靠性越高,则强国更可能接受弱国在相关问题上的自主性诉求。对鸠山一郎、岸信介、佐藤荣作时期日美围绕“冲绳返还”问题以及桥本龙太郎、鸠山由纪夫时期日美围绕普天间基地归还及搬迁的斗争案例的过程追踪与结果比较验证了这一命题。分析日美同盟内部的“自主性—安全”博弈,对理解不对称同盟的管理与维持等具有重要意义。

Ever since the formation of the Japan-U.S.alliance,the two sides have never stopped bargaining around the Okinawa issue.Why has the United States,as the strong side,sometimes compromised with the Japanese demands for autonomy in recovering the authority to govern Okinawa and adjusting the arrangements for military bases?Theoretical analysis of the"autonomy-security trade"between the strong and the weak in an asymmetric alliance shows that the strategic dependence of the strong side on the weak side at a given time and the strategic reliability demonstrated by the weak are the key variables affecting the outcome of the weak's autonomy struggle.The bigger the strong state's need for the weaker state's overall strategic cooperation,minus"costs of changing basing arrangements",and the higher the reliability of the weaker state's strategic cooperation,the more likely the strong state is to accept the weaker state's demand for autonomy on the relevant issues.A comparison of the process and outcome of the Japan-U.S.bargaining over the return of Okinawa governance authority under Japanese prime minister Ichiro Hatoyama,Nobusuke Kishi,and Eisaku Sato,as well as the Japan-U.S.bargaining over the return and relocation of the Putenma base under Ryutaro Hashimoto and Yukio Hatoyama,verifies this proposition.Analyzing the"autonomy-security trade"within the Japan-U.S.alliance is of great significance in understanding the management and maintenance of the asymmetricalliance.